2700 Santa Ynez St · Los Olivos, CA 93441

$4,390,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 5,090 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 456 Days on market

Built 1998 11 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This private estate, located just minutes from Los Olivos, CA, is ideally suited for estate and agricultural enthusiasts. The remarkable property features a custom-designed residence that spans approximately 5,090 square feet and is situated on a level 10.92-acre parcel. The interior boasts a meticulously remodeled gourmet kitchen and five generously sized bedrooms, including a spacious guest ensuite on the second floor that offers picturesque views. The exterior showcases a custom pool, complete with a waterfall, slide, baja shelf, spa, and diving boulders. Additional amenities include a charming pond with a recirculating waterfall, a private well, a BBQ area, a horseshoe pit, a covered hay barn, a 6-stall metal shed row barn, and a 140' x 260' roping arena. With abundant pastures and fencing, this ranch is truly a gem within the Santa Ynez Valley.

Key facts

• Private well
• Custom home
• Bbq area

Tags

• CUSTOM HOME
• REMODELED GOURMET KITCHEN
• KEN DELUNAS CUSTOM POOL
• PICTURESQUE POND
• PRIVATE WELL
• BBQ AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: A-1; Mountain, wooded and partial/filtered views; Level lot; Pets allowed; Property accessed via Park St (directions available)

Exterior

• Utilities: Private water
• Home design: Spanish-style home; Two levels; Home/Estate; One building; Other structures include barn(s) and paddock; Property condition: good to average
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Outdoor spa; Lawn; Irrigated yard; Permeable driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas range; Built-in electric oven; Double oven; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; Laundry room; Built-in appliances including double oven
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $4.39M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $3.94M (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.00M (31.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $3.00M (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#674 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Los Olivos Elementary (town): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #142 of 1,400 in CA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Los Olivos Elementary (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #122 of 1,571 statewide, top 8%, 163 students, 25% FRL); Santa Ynez Valley Union High (847 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($30k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$254k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 456 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.86M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $505k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $289k; list at $4.39M implies a 1419% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,000,000 (31.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 456 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.50%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-259,757
• Equity at exit: $1,310,793

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $169,829
• Equity at exit: $1,604,716

Cash invested: $1,229,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93441

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $30,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$23,022
• Tax from tax record: −$1,411 /mo · $16,937/yr
• Insurance: −$1,829
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,300
• Net cashflow: $-2,562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $33,243

Max offer price $3,937,366

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-77	-5% $-1,320	+0% $-2,562	+5% $-3,805	+10% $-5,047
Rent	-10% $-4,932	-5% $-3,747	+0% $-2,562	+5% $-1,377	+10% $-192
Rate	-1.0pp $-351	-0.5pp $-1,446	base $-2,562	+0.5pp $-3,700	+1.0pp $-4,857

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,097,500
• Closing costs: $131,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2575 Park St Los Olivos, CA	6.0	4.0	4000	$30,000	$7.50	15d	1	0.31mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $4,390,000 Active 456 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $4,390,000 Active 453 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $4,390,000 Active 452 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $4,390,000 Active 451 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $4,390,000 Active 450 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $4,390,000 Active 449 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $4,390,000 Active 448 DOM
8. 2026-03-11
   price $4,390,000

   Show marketing remark (862 chars)

   This private estate, located just minutes from Los Olivos, CA, is ideally suited for estate and agricultural enthusiasts. The remarkable property features a custom-designed residence that spans approximately 5,090 square feet and is situated on a level 10.92-acre parcel. The interior boasts a meticulously remodeled gourmet kitchen and five generously sized bedrooms, including a spacious guest ensuite on the second floor that offers picturesque views. The exterior showcases a custom pool, complete with a waterfall, slide, baja shelf, spa, and diving boulders. Additional amenities include a charming pond with a recirculating waterfall, a private well, a BBQ area, a horseshoe pit, a covered hay barn, a 6-stall metal shed row barn, and a 140' x 260' roping arena. With abundant pastures and fencing, this ranch is truly a gem within the Santa Ynez Valley.

9. 2026-03-11
   price $4,390,000 862-char remark

   Show marketing remark (862 chars)

   This private estate, located just minutes from Los Olivos, CA, is ideally suited for estate and agricultural enthusiasts. The remarkable property features a custom-designed residence that spans approximately 5,090 square feet and is situated on a level 10.92-acre parcel. The interior boasts a meticulously remodeled gourmet kitchen and five generously sized bedrooms, including a spacious guest ensuite on the second floor that offers picturesque views. The exterior showcases a custom pool, complete with a waterfall, slide, baja shelf, spa, and diving boulders. Additional amenities include a charming pond with a recirculating waterfall, a private well, a BBQ area, a horseshoe pit, a covered hay barn, a 6-stall metal shed row barn, and a 140' x 260' roping arena. With abundant pastures and fencing, this ranch is truly a gem within the Santa Ynez Valley.

10. 2025-11-04
    price $4,490,000 862-char remark

    Show marketing remark (862 chars)

    This private estate, located just minutes from Los Olivos, CA, is ideally suited for estate and agricultural enthusiasts. The remarkable property features a custom-designed residence that spans approximately 5,090 square feet and is situated on a level 10.92-acre parcel. The interior boasts a meticulously remodeled gourmet kitchen and five generously sized bedrooms, including a spacious guest ensuite on the second floor that offers picturesque views. The exterior showcases a custom pool, complete with a waterfall, slide, baja shelf, spa, and diving boulders. Additional amenities include a charming pond with a recirculating waterfall, a private well, a BBQ area, a horseshoe pit, a covered hay barn, a 6-stall metal shed row barn, and a 140' x 260' roping arena. With abundant pastures and fencing, this ranch is truly a gem within the Santa Ynez Valley.

11. 2025-11-04
    price $4,490,000

    Show marketing remark (862 chars)

    This private estate, located just minutes from Los Olivos, CA, is ideally suited for estate and agricultural enthusiasts. The remarkable property features a custom-designed residence that spans approximately 5,090 square feet and is situated on a level 10.92-acre parcel. The interior boasts a meticulously remodeled gourmet kitchen and five generously sized bedrooms, including a spacious guest ensuite on the second floor that offers picturesque views. The exterior showcases a custom pool, complete with a waterfall, slide, baja shelf, spa, and diving boulders. Additional amenities include a charming pond with a recirculating waterfall, a private well, a BBQ area, a horseshoe pit, a covered hay barn, a 6-stall metal shed row barn, and a 140' x 260' roping arena. With abundant pastures and fencing, this ranch is truly a gem within the Santa Ynez Valley.

12. 2025-07-28
    price $4,590,000 862-char remark

    Show marketing remark (862 chars)

    This private estate, located just minutes from Los Olivos, CA, is ideally suited for estate and agricultural enthusiasts. The remarkable property features a custom-designed residence that spans approximately 5,090 square feet and is situated on a level 10.92-acre parcel. The interior boasts a meticulously remodeled gourmet kitchen and five generously sized bedrooms, including a spacious guest ensuite on the second floor that offers picturesque views. The exterior showcases a custom pool, complete with a waterfall, slide, baja shelf, spa, and diving boulders. Additional amenities include a charming pond with a recirculating waterfall, a private well, a BBQ area, a horseshoe pit, a covered hay barn, a 6-stall metal shed row barn, and a 140' x 260' roping arena. With abundant pastures and fencing, this ranch is truly a gem within the Santa Ynez Valley.

13. 2025-07-28
    price $4,590,000

    Show marketing remark (862 chars)

    This private estate, located just minutes from Los Olivos, CA, is ideally suited for estate and agricultural enthusiasts. The remarkable property features a custom-designed residence that spans approximately 5,090 square feet and is situated on a level 10.92-acre parcel. The interior boasts a meticulously remodeled gourmet kitchen and five generously sized bedrooms, including a spacious guest ensuite on the second floor that offers picturesque views. The exterior showcases a custom pool, complete with a waterfall, slide, baja shelf, spa, and diving boulders. Additional amenities include a charming pond with a recirculating waterfall, a private well, a BBQ area, a horseshoe pit, a covered hay barn, a 6-stall metal shed row barn, and a 140' x 260' roping arena. With abundant pastures and fencing, this ranch is truly a gem within the Santa Ynez Valley.

14. 2025-05-28
    price $4,795,000 862-char remark

    Show marketing remark (862 chars)

    This private estate, located just minutes from Los Olivos, CA, is ideally suited for estate and agricultural enthusiasts. The remarkable property features a custom-designed residence that spans approximately 5,090 square feet and is situated on a level 10.92-acre parcel. The interior boasts a meticulously remodeled gourmet kitchen and five generously sized bedrooms, including a spacious guest ensuite on the second floor that offers picturesque views. The exterior showcases a custom pool, complete with a waterfall, slide, baja shelf, spa, and diving boulders. Additional amenities include a charming pond with a recirculating waterfall, a private well, a BBQ area, a horseshoe pit, a covered hay barn, a 6-stall metal shed row barn, and a 140' x 260' roping arena. With abundant pastures and fencing, this ranch is truly a gem within the Santa Ynez Valley.

15. 2025-05-28
    price $4,795,000

    Show marketing remark (862 chars)

    This private estate, located just minutes from Los Olivos, CA, is ideally suited for estate and agricultural enthusiasts. The remarkable property features a custom-designed residence that spans approximately 5,090 square feet and is situated on a level 10.92-acre parcel. The interior boasts a meticulously remodeled gourmet kitchen and five generously sized bedrooms, including a spacious guest ensuite on the second floor that offers picturesque views. The exterior showcases a custom pool, complete with a waterfall, slide, baja shelf, spa, and diving boulders. Additional amenities include a charming pond with a recirculating waterfall, a private well, a BBQ area, a horseshoe pit, a covered hay barn, a 6-stall metal shed row barn, and a 140' x 260' roping arena. With abundant pastures and fencing, this ranch is truly a gem within the Santa Ynez Valley.

16. 2025-03-08
    listed $4,895,000 Active
17. 2025-03-07
    listed $4,895,000 Active 862-char remark

    Show marketing remark (862 chars)

    This private estate, located just minutes from Los Olivos, CA, is ideally suited for estate and agricultural enthusiasts. The remarkable property features a custom-designed residence that spans approximately 5,090 square feet and is situated on a level 10.92-acre parcel. The interior boasts a meticulously remodeled gourmet kitchen and five generously sized bedrooms, including a spacious guest ensuite on the second floor that offers picturesque views. The exterior showcases a custom pool, complete with a waterfall, slide, baja shelf, spa, and diving boulders. Additional amenities include a charming pond with a recirculating waterfall, a private well, a BBQ area, a horseshoe pit, a covered hay barn, a 6-stall metal shed row barn, and a 140' x 260' roping arena. With abundant pastures and fencing, this ranch is truly a gem within the Santa Ynez Valley.

18. 1997-07-17
    soldstatus $289,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $16,937 · $1,411/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $33,364 · $2,780/mo
• Expected delta: +$16,427/yr (+$1,369/mo · 97.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $360,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$245,908
• − Property taxes: −$16,937
• − Insurance: −$21,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$28,800
• − Management: −$28,800
• − Depreciation: −$127,709
• Taxable loss: −$110,105
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$26,425
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Olivos Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0622920
• Math proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $83,038
• Composite: 59.76/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #142 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Los Olivos

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #674
• US rank: #20728

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Olivos, CA
• Population (ZIP): 990

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 5% Scottish 4%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Current HPI: 322.9023
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1419.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $4,390,000 SBMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $4,390,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $4,490,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $4,490,000 SBMLS
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $4,590,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $4,590,000 SBMLS
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $4,795,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $4,795,000 SBMLS
• 2025-03-08 Listed $4,895,000 SBMLS
• 2025-03-07 Listed $4,895,000 NSBCRMLS
• 1997-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $289,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $16,937 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.