6865 Old Henderson Spottsville Rd

Spottsville, KY 42458

$69,900B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $982/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $326/mo
• Annual: $3,915/yr
• Cap rate: 11.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.00%
• DSCR: 1.89
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($982 rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $701 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#280 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Henderson County (suburban): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #29 of 165 in KY (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spottsville Elementary School (math 56% / reading 57%, grade C+, #57 of 676 statewide, top 9%, 547 students, 40% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Henderson County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henderson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.