6865 Old Henderson Spottsville Rd · Spottsville, KY 42458

$69,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1950

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

You won't believe the transformation!!! New paint, flooring, lighting fixtures and more!! Schedule your private tour today, at this price, it won't last long!!!

Key facts

• Built 1950
• Listed 59 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($982 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#280 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Henderson County (suburban): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #29 of 165 in KY (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spottsville Elementary School (math 56% / reading 57%, grade C+, #57 of 676 statewide, top 9%, 547 students, 40% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Henderson County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $701 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henderson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.00%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $15,500
• Equity at exit: $16,863

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $45,913
• Equity at exit: $17,699

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42458

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $647/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-23
   listed $69,900 Active
3. 2025-08-15
   price $39,000
4. 2025-07-31
   price $49,000
5. 2025-07-30
   price $52,000
6. 2025-07-14
   price $53,000
7. 2025-07-01
   price $55,000
8. 2025-05-23
   price $60,000
9. 2025-05-14
   price $65,000
10. 2025-05-09
    price $75,000
11. 2025-04-25
    listed $80,000 Active
12. 2023-05-11
    price $59,900
13. 2023-03-28
    status Active
14. 2022-10-13
    price $75,000
15. 2022-09-27
    price $85,000
16. 2022-08-31
    listed $96,000 Active
17. 2022-08-11
    soldstatus $53,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$647
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$943
• − Management: −$943
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $2,954
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$709
• After-tax cash flow: $3,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henderson County
• NCES district ID: 2102710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,772
• Composite: 34.13/100
• National rank: #5285
• State rank: #29 of 165 in KY

Livability — Spottsville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #280
• US rank: #13623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spottsville, KY
• Population (ZIP): 906

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,910 people
• By 2030: 46,841 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 46,018 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 44,390 · -5.4%
• By 2075: 40,442 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 33,538 · -28.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Serbian 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.2) · D 34.7% · R 64.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -29.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.2 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+27.7 2012: R+11.8 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.00%
• Current HPI: 178.8349
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+30.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — HABOR
• 2026-01-23 Listed $69,900 HABOR
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $39,000 HABOR
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $49,000 HABOR
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $52,000 HABOR
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $53,000 HABOR
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $55,000 HABOR
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $60,000 HABOR
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $65,000 HABOR
• 2025-05-09 Price Changed $75,000 HABOR
• 2025-04-25 Listed $80,000 HABOR
• 2023-05-11 Price Changed $59,900 GORAMLS
• 2023-03-28 Relisted — GORAMLS
• 2022-10-13 Price Changed $75,000 GORAMLS
• 2022-09-27 Price Changed $85,000 GORAMLS
• 2022-08-31 Listed $96,000 GORAMLS
• 2022-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $53,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $647 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.