184 Birch Hill Rd

Bristol, NH 03222

$159,900B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $748/mo
• Annual: $8,981/yr
• Cap rate: 11.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.06%
• DSCR: 1.89
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $748 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Newfound Area School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #61 of 98 in NH (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.3% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.