184 Birch Hill Rd · Bristol, NH 03222

$159,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1971 0.34 ac lot $202/sqft · 47% below area Est $300k · 47% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Owner financing opportunity to buy this 2 bed home in Bridgewater/ Bristol NH near Newfound Lake. Country setting near woods, shed, and much more. CASH Transaction or owner financing with 50k downpayment. Broker interest.

Key facts

• Shed
• Country setting
• Near woods

Tags

• COUNTRY SETTING
• NEAR WOODS
• SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is foreclosed / bank-owned / REO

Exterior

• Utilities: Drilled well water; 1000-gallon septic with on-site leach field; Circuit breaker electrical service; Cable internet available
• Home design: Ranch-style home; Existing construction
• Construction: Built in 1971; Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Country setting; Dirt driveway; Yellow exterior color

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric stove
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Four total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $748 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.3% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Newfound Area School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #61 of 98 in NH (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $157,501 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.06%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,017
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -46.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
78 Shore Dr N	0.72mi	2/1.0	864 (+9%)	11mo	$475,000	$550	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $21,719
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $80,139
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03222

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,013/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $748

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,253

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19 Arrowhead Point Rd Bristol, NH	3.0	1.0	888	$2,200	$2.48	44d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-02
   price $179,900 281-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   price $199,900 281-char remark
3. 2026-04-29
   price $179,900 281-char remark
4. 2026-04-28
   listed $199,900 Active 281-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,013 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,249 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,236/yr (+$103/mo · 122.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,013
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $6,755
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,621
• After-tax cash flow: $7,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newfound Area School District
• NCES district ID: 3305220
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $53,994
• Composite: 36.07/100
• National rank: #4766
• State rank: #61 of 98 in NH

Livability — Bristol

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #12048

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,135

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Slovak 4% Serbian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.83%
• Current HPI: 410.261
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $159,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $179,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $199,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $179,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $199,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,013 · +17.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.