14 Kastor Ln

West Long Branch, NJ 07764

$2,650,000C+

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,408 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $68,581/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,897
• Tax + insurance: −$3,057
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$14,402
• Net cashflow: $37,225/mo
• Annual: $446,702/yr
• Cap rate: 23.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.20%
• DSCR: 3.68
• 1% rule: 2.59%
• Cash to close: $742,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.65M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37k ($447k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($69k rent vs $2.65M).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.57M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.57M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $18k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $80k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#268 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• West Long Branch School District (suburban): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #154 of 472 in NJ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $998k; list at $2.65M implies a 166% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $742k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 23.1% vs local median 2.0% in West Long Branch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.