14 Kastor Ln · West Long Branch, NJ 07764

$2,650,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1986 0.59 ac lot Est $1779k · 49% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come and see this great colonial with a pool and large yard sitting in a quiet cul de sac. Prime West Long Branch location. Great floor plan. Wood kitchen with new stainless appliances and stone counters. large den, dining room, den and living room. Large primary suite with marble bathroom and walk in closet. 2 car garage. Finished basement with housekeeper room. Close to houses of worship, beach and shopping. Call Today!

Key facts

• Cul de sac
• Large yard
• Pool

Tags

• POOL
• LARGE YARD
• CUL DE SAC
• WEST LONG BRANCH LOCATION
• WOOD KITCHEN
• NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; No fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.65M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37k ($447k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($69k rent vs $2.65M).
• Recommended offer: $2.57M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.1% vs local median 2.0% in West Long Branch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#268 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• West Long Branch School District (suburban): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #154 of 472 in NJ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $18k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $80k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $742k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.57M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $998k; list at $2.65M implies a 166% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,570,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.20%
• DSCR: 3.68
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,778,976
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
499 Wall St	0.40mi	5/3.0	3,269 (-4%)	7mo	$1,725,000	$528	69
36 Muncy Dr	0.47mi	5/3.5	3,542 (+4%)	3mo	$1,610,000	$455	67
469 Wall St	0.46mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,520 (+3%)	7mo	$1,836,000	$522	62
7 Wallace Ave	0.62mi	5/4.0	3,486 (+2%)	6mo	$1,499,000	$430	59
32 Musket Ln	0.33mi	5/4.5	3,127 (-8%)	9mo	$2,300,000	$736	57
22 Muncy Dr	0.49mi	5/3.5	3,105 (-9%)	7mo	$1,700,000	$548	54
5 Woods Rd	0.66mi	5/2.5	3,178 (-7%)	9mo	$1,410,000	$444	48
13 Harbor Ct	0.41mi	5/2.5	3,026 (-11%)	15mo	$1,725,000	$570	48
34 S Arlene Dr	0.57mi	6/3.5 (+1)	3,473 (+2%)	21mo	$1,462,500	$421	46
9 Abis Pl	0.69mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,897 (-15%)	16mo	$1,100,000	$380	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $1,941,677
• Equity at exit: $395,124

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.39×
• Total profit: $4,744,488
• Equity at exit: $229,124

Cash invested: $742,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07764

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $68,581 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,897
• Tax from tax record: −$1,952 /mo · $23,429/yr
• Insurance: −$1,104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$14,402
• Net cashflow: $37,225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $21,460

Max offer price $2,650,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $662,500
• Closing costs: $79,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Valley Forge Rd Eatontown, NJ	6.0	4.5	3934	$4,500	$1.14	1d	1	0.27mi
58 Georgetown Rd Eatontown, NJ	5.0	4.0	3665	$57,000	$15.55	22d	1	0.45mi
25 Muncy Dr West Long Branch, NJ	5.0	4.0	4347	$99,000	$22.77	22d	1	0.50mi
63 Jamestown Rd Eatontown, NJ	6.0	3.5	2755	$70,000	$25.41	22d	1	0.57mi
24 Barbara Ln Oakhurst, NJ	4.0	2.5	2331	$2,500	$1.07	24d	1	0.83mi
20 Roslyn Dr Oakhurst, NJ	6.0	4.5	2541	$11,000	$4.33	1d	1	0.96mi
534 Apple Dr Oakhurst, NJ	5.0	3.5	2919	$45,000	$15.42	24d	1	1.03mi
60 Larchwood Ave Oakhurst, NJ	6.0	3.0	2712	$67,500	$24.89	24d	1	1.12mi
7 Elinore Ave Long Branch, NJ	5.0	2.0	2848	$2,600	$0.91	24d	1	1.38mi
1902 Westfield St Oakhurst, NJ	5.0	4.0	3935	$60,000	$15.25	22d	1	1.41mi
330 Highland Ave Long Branch, NJ	4.0	4.0	2677	$2,800	$1.05	17d	1	1.45mi
243 Woodcrest Rd Oakhurst, NJ	6.0	4.5	3270	$11,000	$3.36	1d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $2,650,000 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $2,650,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $2,650,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $2,650,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $2,650,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-05-13
   historical $68,000
7. 2026-05-05
   price $68,000
8. 2026-05-04
   listed $2,650,000 Active
9. 2026-04-25
   price $72,000
10. 2026-04-21
    listed $80,000
11. 2006-10-02
    soldstatus $998,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $23,429 · $1,952/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $44,707 · $3,726/mo
• Expected delta: +$21,278/yr (+$1,773/mo · 90.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $822,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$148,441
• − Property taxes: −$23,429
• − Insurance: −$13,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$65,837
• − Management: −$65,837
• − Depreciation: −$77,091
• Taxable income: $429,081
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$102,979
• After-tax cash flow: $343,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Long Branch School District
• NCES district ID: 3417490
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $87,522
• Composite: 42.99/100
• National rank: #3108
• State rank: #154 of 472 in NJ

Livability — West Long Branch

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #7916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Long Branch, NJ
• City population: 8,576
• Population (ZIP): 8,576

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Estonian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -169.51%
• Current HPI: 432.648
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-93.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Rental Removed $68,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $68,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $2,650,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $72,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed for Rent $80,000 MOMLS
• 2006-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $998,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $23,429 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.