6500 E Fanfol Dr

Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$4,299,000D-

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 6,351 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,837/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$22,544
• Tax + insurance: −$2,692
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,016
• Net cashflow: $-21,416/mo
• Annual: $-256,990/yr
• Cap rate: 0.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.35%
• DSCR: 0.05
• 1% rule: 0.11%
• Cash to close: $1,203,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $4.30M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21k ($-257k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $516k (88.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $484k (88.7% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($4.17M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $484k (88.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $460k of equity ($30k loan paydown + $430k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#123 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cherokee Elementary School (math 86% / reading 87%, grade A+, #5 of 1,109 statewide, top 0%, 659 students, 6% FRL); Cocopah Middle School (math 63% / reading 63%, grade B+, #3 of 218 statewide, top 1%, 886 students, 9% FRL); Chaparral High School (math 40% / reading 35%, grade F, #82 of 381 statewide, top 22%, 2,038 students, 6% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.6%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.52M; list at $4.30M implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$739k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($185k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 89% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.