1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
790 sqft ·
Built 1983
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 37 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,655/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$603
Tax + insurance
−$618
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$348
Net cashflow
$87/mo
Annual
$1,040/yr
Cap rate
11.65%
Cash-on-cash
19.14%
DSCR
1.85
1% rule
1.44%
Cash to close
$32,172
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $111k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#102 in FL, #1,559 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 565 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 2.7% in Bay Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: Kitchen cabinets
— The cabinets are visibly damaged and need to be replaced.
Major: Kitchen countertops
— The countertops are damaged and need to be replaced.
Major: Bathroom
— The bathroom requires significant repairs and updates.
Major: Roof
— The roof is in poor condition and needs to be replaced.
Major: Exterior siding
— The siding is peeling and damaged, requiring replacement.
Major: Flooring
— The flooring is damaged and needs to be replaced.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29