1327 Lily Pad Dr

Spanish Fork, UT 84660

$399,900F

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,480 sqft · Built 2007 · Townhouse · Active · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,974/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$326
• HOA: −$110
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-974/mo
• Annual: $-11,690/yr
• Cap rate: 3.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.44%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $111,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-974 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (43.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (50.6% below list).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (50.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#26 in UT, #1,012 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Nebo District (suburban): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #45 of 80 in UT (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rees School (math 43% / reading 33%, grade F, #349 of 585 statewide, top 60%, 641 students, 31% FRL); Diamond Fork Middle (1,039 students, 25% FRL); Maple Mountain High (math 35% / reading 55%, grade D-, #43 of 171 statewide, top 25%, 1,740 students, 10% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 561 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,326 units permitted in Utah County in 2024 (1,053 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Utah County population projected at +49% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.