1599 Fourth St

Lake City, AR 72437

$249,900D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,599 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,575/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$416
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-483/mo
• Annual: $-5,793/yr
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.28%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-483 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (37.0% below list).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#180 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Riverside School District (rural): math 32% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #103 of 238 in AR (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riverside West Elem. School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 296 students, 56% FRL); Riverside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #112 of 292 statewide, top 39%, 331 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 926 units permitted in Craighead County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Craighead County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 5.1% in Lake City — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.