1599 Fourth St · Lake City, AR 72437

$249,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,599 sqft · SingleFamily · 120 Days on market

Built 2026 0.48 ac lot $156/sqft · 9% below area Est $273k · 9% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Market 1599 Fourth St, Lake City, Arkansas, in the Riverside School District. This new construction is ready for new owners with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, offering 1,599 square feet of heated and cooled living space on a surveyed 0.48-acre lot. The open kitchen features stainless appliances, custom cabinets, and solid-surface countertops, plus a large walk-in pantry for extra storage. The primary suite features a walk-in shower, soaking tub, and a huge walk-in closet. The split floor plan includes a large laundry room and an additional half bath for added convenience. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered back porch overlooking the spacious yard. Additional highlights include a 75-foot concrete driveway with a 14x20 turnaround for ample parking and an energy-efficient gas tankless water heater. Zero-down financing is available for qualified buyers. Call today to schedule your tour.

Key facts

• Custom cabinets
• New construction
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• SOLID-SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE WALK-IN PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-483 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (37.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 5.1% in Lake City — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#180 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Riverside School District (rural): math 32% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #103 of 238 in AR (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riverside West Elem. School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 296 students, 56% FRL); Riverside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #112 of 292 statewide, top 39%, 331 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 926 units permitted in Craighead County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Craighead County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,500 (37.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.28%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,362
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -8.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1404 Jordan St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,570 (-2%)	7mo	$249,900	$159	79
116 Hickory Rd	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,544 (-3%)	4mo	$180,000	$117	75
1407 Pamela	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+5%)	5mo	$277,435	$166	74
1412 Pamela	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+3%)	12mo	$285,000	$173	70
1101 Dealyn St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,524 (-5%)	4mo	$157,000	$103	59
202 Marcella Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-11%)	11mo	$175,000	$123	52
106 Waterfowl	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,435 (-10%)	8mo	$238,000	$166	51
111 Oak St	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,542 (-4%)	10mo	$150,000	$97	50
907 Nash St	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,660 (+4%)	6mo	$209,900	$126	50
119 Cherry	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,754 (+10%)	4mo	$98,000	$56	45
123 Waterfowl Way	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,382 (-14%)	11mo	$198,000	$143	41
1400 Kelton	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,825 (+14%)	13mo	$294,900	$162	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $104,822
• Equity at exit: $224,537

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $332,758
• Equity at exit: $483,594

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72437

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $180,045

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-310	-5% $-396	+0% $-483	+5% $-569	+10% $-655
Rent	-10% $-607	-5% $-545	+0% $-483	+5% $-421	+10% $-358
Rate	-1.0pp $-357	-0.5pp $-419	base $-483	+0.5pp $-548	+1.0pp $-613

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1997 Teal Cv Lake City, AR	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,575	$1.25	45d	1	0.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,900 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,900 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $249,900 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Back on Market 102 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Back on Market 101 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Back on Market 100 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Back on Market 99 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Back on Market 98 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    status Under Contract 903-char remark

    Show marketing remark (903 chars)

    Welcome to Market 1599 Fourth St, Lake City, Arkansas, in the Riverside School District. This new construction is ready for new owners with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, offering 1,599 square feet of heated and cooled living space on a surveyed 0.48-acre lot. The open kitchen features stainless appliances, custom cabinets, and solid-surface countertops, plus a large walk-in pantry for extra storage. The primary suite features a walk-in shower, soaking tub, and a huge walk-in closet. The split floor plan includes a large laundry room and an additional half bath for added convenience. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered back porch overlooking the spacious yard. Additional highlights include a 75-foot concrete driveway with a 14x20 turnaround for ample parking and an energy-efficient gas tankless water heater. Zero-down financing is available for qualified buyers. Call today to schedule your tour.

19. 2026-04-16
    price $249,900 903-char remark

    Show marketing remark (903 chars)

    Welcome to Market 1599 Fourth St, Lake City, Arkansas, in the Riverside School District. This new construction is ready for new owners with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, offering 1,599 square feet of heated and cooled living space on a surveyed 0.48-acre lot. The open kitchen features stainless appliances, custom cabinets, and solid-surface countertops, plus a large walk-in pantry for extra storage. The primary suite features a walk-in shower, soaking tub, and a huge walk-in closet. The split floor plan includes a large laundry room and an additional half bath for added convenience. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered back porch overlooking the spacious yard. Additional highlights include a 75-foot concrete driveway with a 14x20 turnaround for ample parking and an energy-efficient gas tankless water heater. Zero-down financing is available for qualified buyers. Call today to schedule your tour.

20. 2026-04-16
    price $249,900

    Show marketing remark (903 chars)

    Welcome to Market 1599 Fourth St, Lake City, Arkansas, in the Riverside School District. This new construction is ready for new owners with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, offering 1,599 square feet of heated and cooled living space on a surveyed 0.48-acre lot. The open kitchen features stainless appliances, custom cabinets, and solid-surface countertops, plus a large walk-in pantry for extra storage. The primary suite features a walk-in shower, soaking tub, and a huge walk-in closet. The split floor plan includes a large laundry room and an additional half bath for added convenience. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered back porch overlooking the spacious yard. Additional highlights include a 75-foot concrete driveway with a 14x20 turnaround for ample parking and an energy-efficient gas tankless water heater. Zero-down financing is available for qualified buyers. Call today to schedule your tour.

21. 2026-02-11
    listed $259,900 New Listing 903-char remark

    Show marketing remark (903 chars)

    Welcome to Market 1599 Fourth St, Lake City, Arkansas, in the Riverside School District. This new construction is ready for new owners with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, offering 1,599 square feet of heated and cooled living space on a surveyed 0.48-acre lot. The open kitchen features stainless appliances, custom cabinets, and solid-surface countertops, plus a large walk-in pantry for extra storage. The primary suite features a walk-in shower, soaking tub, and a huge walk-in closet. The split floor plan includes a large laundry room and an additional half bath for added convenience. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered back porch overlooking the spacious yard. Additional highlights include a 75-foot concrete driveway with a 14x20 turnaround for ample parking and an energy-efficient gas tankless water heater. Zero-down financing is available for qualified buyers. Call today to schedule your tour.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$10,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,494
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverside School District
• NCES district ID: 0500012
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $37,959
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6136
• State rank: #103 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #180
• US rank: #14568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, AR
• Population (ZIP): 3,386

Population outlook (Craighead County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,235 people
• By 2030: 131,338 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 149,862 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 168,034 · +37.5%
• By 2075: 208,094 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 233,251 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Craighead

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.1% · R 67.5% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+35.4 2016: R+35.2 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.97%
• Current HPI: 295.1637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $249,900 CARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $249,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $259,900 CARMLS