164 Austin Ryer Ln #164

Branford, CT 06405

$250,000C-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,488 sqft · Built 1986 · Condo · Under Contract · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,537/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$417
• HOA: −$335
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-59/mo
• Annual: $-704/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-704/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (3.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Branford School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #85 of 153 in CT (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mary T. Murphy School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #213 of 553 statewide, top 41%, 366 students, 44% FRL); Branford High School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #87 of 194 statewide, top 46%, 818 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 18% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.6%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $250k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.