164 Austin Ryer Ln #164 · Branford, CT 06405

$250,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,488 sqft · Condo · 33 Days on market

Built 1986 Good condition $168/sqft · 19% below area Est $310k · 19% under $335/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mint condo in a great location, end unit. Living rm with charming corner fp,dr sliders to deck, full finished walk out basement family room. Dr chandelier to bereplaced.Spacious bed rooms

Key facts

• $335 HOA
• Parking
• Built 1986

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $335; HOA covers grounds maintenance, trash pickup, snow removal, and property management; Professional off-site property management; Pets allowed per HOA rules; Part of a 101-unit community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Condominium (unit in Island View Village II); End unit
• Construction: Frame and concrete construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Hot air heat (natural gas)
• Interior features: Pre-wired for cable; One fireplace; Full finished walk-out basement; Has attic with hatch access; Three-level unit (3 levels); Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-704/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (3.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Branford School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #85 of 153 in CT (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mary T. Murphy School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #213 of 553 statewide, top 41%, 366 students, 44% FRL); Branford High School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #87 of 194 statewide, top 46%, 818 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 18% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.6%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $250k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,506 (3.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,835
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -19.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-30,599
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $30,548
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06405

• Rents YoY: 10.6%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,537 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$335
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,611

Max offer price $241,506

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
91 Hampton Park Branford, CT	2.0	1.0	1114	$2,550	$2.29	2d	1	0.83mi
154 E Main St Unit A Branford, CT	2.0	1.0	1040	$2,400	$2.31	43d	1	0.96mi
132 Montoya Dr Unit 132 Branford, CT	1.0	1.0	1136	$2,250	$1.98	14d	1	1.14mi
112 Montoya Dr Unit 112 Branford, CT	2.0	2.0	1275	$2,615	$2.05	43d	1	1.16mi
118 Montoya Dr Unit 118 Branford, CT	1.0	1.0	1136	$2,375	$2.09	10d	1	1.18mi
15 Bradley Ave Branford, CT	2.0	1.0	936	$2,000	$2.14	43d	1	1.19mi
815 Main St Branford, CT	3.0	1.5	1824	$3,200	$1.75	10d	1	1.21mi
650 Main St Unit 3 Branford, CT	1.0	2.0	1750	$5,000	$2.86	23d	1	1.23mi
57 Montoya Cir Branford, CT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1180	$2,698	$2.29	2d	1	1.23mi
81 Church St Branford, CT	1.0	1.0	1092	$2,195	$2.01	43d	1	1.26mi
7 Mill Plain Rd Branford, CT	1.0–2.0	1.0	885	$2,245	$2.54	3d	4	1.28mi
96 Main St #2 Branford, CT	1.0	1.0	1073	$1,400	$1.30	23d	1	1.33mi
14 Averill Pl Unit 8 Branford, CT	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	43d	1	1.35mi
40 Rogers St Unit 1 Branford, CT	2.0	1.0	1081	$2,400	$2.22	43d	1	1.43mi
49 N Harbor St Unit 1 Branford, CT	3.0	1.0	1118	$2,150	$1.92	44d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $335 · $4,020/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $250,000 Under Contract 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $250,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 25 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $250,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 24 DOM
9. 2026-05-13
   historical Under Contract - Continue to Show 1224-char remark
10. 2026-05-08
    listed $250,000 Active 1224-char remark
11. 2026-05-05
    historical $250,000 1224-char remark
12. 2009-11-03
    historical
13. 2009-05-03
    listed $197,900
14. 2000-06-23
    soldstatus $105,000

    Show marketing remark (187 chars)

    Mint condo in a great location, end unit. Living rm with charming corner fp,dr sliders to deck, full finished walk out basement family room. Dr chandelier to bereplaced.Spacious bed rooms

15. 2000-03-29
    listed $109,850

    Show marketing remark (187 chars)

    Mint condo in a great location, end unit. Living rm with charming corner fp,dr sliders to deck, full finished walk out basement family room. Dr chandelier to bereplaced.Spacious bed rooms

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,435
• − Management: −$2,435
• − HOA: −$4,020
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,727
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,134
• After-tax cash flow: $430/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready townhouse offers a good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed for optimal resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace worn-out window seals — Improves energy efficiency and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace worn-out window seals — Improves energy efficiency and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branford School District
• NCES district ID: 0900420
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $70,979
• Composite: 41.85/100
• National rank: #3377
• State rank: #85 of 153 in CT

Livability — Branford

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 28,217
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 28,217
• Household income: $105,225
• Rent vs Own: 30.5% rent · 69.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1132.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -455.72%
• Current HPI: 189.8481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.58%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+127.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-13 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $250,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-05-05 Coming Soon $250,000 Smart MLS
• 2009-11-03 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2009-05-03 Listed $197,900 Smart MLS
• 2000-06-23 Sold (MLS) $105,000 Smart MLS
• 2000-03-29 Listed $109,850 Smart MLS