1462 Onionville Rd

Fair Haven, NY 13156

$189,900A

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,406 sqft · Built 1848 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,992/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$326
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $1,042/mo
• Annual: $12,505/yr
• Cap rate: 12.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.52%
• DSCR: 2.05
• 1% rule: 1.58%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#881 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Red Creek Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #415 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Margaret W Cuyler Elementary School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 371 students, 52% FRL); Red Creek Middle School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade D, #348 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 188 students, 57% FRL); Red Creek High School (math 95% / reading 50%, grade B+, #672 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 245 students, 47% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1848 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $190k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1848 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.