1462 Onionville Rd · Fair Haven, NY 13156

$189,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,406 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1848 2.80 ac lot Est $260k · 27% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy "The Good Life" in this well cared for Country Colonial on 2.7 Acres. Very spacious! 4 BRs, 1 1/2 Baths, a screened front porch, and generously sized rooms throughout. All the major upgrades already done for you- including new steel roof, newer windows, and newer furnace & entirely new septic system! Nice Barn Type garage with a workshop ready for your tools. Nature all around and this lot borders a popular area recreational trail for atv's, skiing or walking. Nice setting - Beautiful gardens and peace and quiet awaits you so call today! Great value here!

Key facts

• Expansive lawn
• Walk in pantry
• Mature trees

Tags

• EXPANSIVE LAWN
• MATURE TREES
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• BARN STYLE GARAGE
• WALK IN PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#881 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Red Creek Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #415 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $190k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1848 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $189,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1848 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.52%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,040
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14607 Martville Rd	1.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,488 (+6%)	5mo	$69,000	$46	44
1333 State Route 104a	0.82mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,387 (-1%)	19mo	$190,000	$137	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.57% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $151,628
• Equity at exit: $151,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.36×
• Total profit: $391,254
• Equity at exit: $308,481

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13156

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,992 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,960/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $1,042

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,673

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,150	-5% $1,096	+0% $1,042	+5% $988	+10% $935
Rent	-10% $806	-5% $924	+0% $1,042	+5% $1,160	+10% $1,278
Rate	-1.0pp $1,138	-0.5pp $1,090	base $1,042	+0.5pp $993	+1.0pp $943

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-14
   listed $189,900 Active
4. 2012-05-17
   soldstatus $104,000
5. 2012-05-16
   soldstatus $104,000 584-char remark

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Enjoy "The Good Life" in this well cared for Country Colonial on 2.7 Acres. Very spacious! 4 BRs, 1 1/2 Baths, a screened front porch, and generously sized rooms throughout. All the major upgrades already done for you- including new steel roof, newer windows, and newer furnace & entirely new septic system! Nice Barn Type garage with a workshop ready for your tools. Nature all around and this lot borders a popular area recreational trail for atv's, skiing or walking. Nice setting - Beautiful gardens and peace and quiet awaits you so call today! Great value here!

6. 2011-05-24
   listed $109,900 584-char remark

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Enjoy "The Good Life" in this well cared for Country Colonial on 2.7 Acres. Very spacious! 4 BRs, 1 1/2 Baths, a screened front porch, and generously sized rooms throughout. All the major upgrades already done for you- including new steel roof, newer windows, and newer furnace & entirely new septic system! Nice Barn Type garage with a workshop ready for your tools. Nature all around and this lot borders a popular area recreational trail for atv's, skiing or walking. Nice setting - Beautiful gardens and peace and quiet awaits you so call today! Great value here!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,960 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,085 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: +$125/yr (+$10/mo · 4.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,960
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,872
• − Management: −$2,872
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $10,089
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,421
• After-tax cash flow: $10,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Creek Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624210
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,249
• Composite: 41.35/100
• National rank: #3495
• State rank: #415 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fair Haven

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #881
• US rank: #17161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,108

Population outlook (Cayuga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,820 people
• By 2030: 72,402 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 66,917 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 61,007 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 48,047 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 34,512 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 5% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Cayuga

• 2024 margin: R (+13.0) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -13.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.0 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.2 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.57%
• Current HPI: 372.8237
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+72.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-20 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $189,900 CNYIS
• 2012-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 2012-05-16 Sold (MLS) $104,000 CNYIS
• 2011-05-24 Listed $109,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,960 · -4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.