33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 14 Wk 28

Pacific City, OR 97135

$67,997B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Built 2007 · Timeshare · Active · 188 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$458
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $1,047/mo
• Annual: $12,565/yr
• Cap rate: 24.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.00%
• DSCR: 3.94
• 1% rule: 3.68%
• Cash to close: $19,039

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $68k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $60k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $966 of equity ($470 loan paydown + $496 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#173 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment B, housing B; Watch: commute D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Nestucca Valley SD 101J (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #101 of 183 in OR (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nestucca K8 (math 10% / reading 44%, grade F, #288 of 412 statewide, top 73%, 349 students, 70% FRL); Nestucca High School (math 15% / reading 50%, grade F, #102 of 143 statewide, top 73%, 162 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 54% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 24.8% vs local median 1.7% in Pacific City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.