33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 14 Wk 28 · Pacific City, OR 97135

$67,997

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Timeshare · 188 Days on market

Built 2007 $50/sqft · 13% above area Est $60k · 13% over $458/mo HOA · 18% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Weeks Every Year! An affordable way to guarantee your beach time in beautiful Pacific City! This oceanfront cottage sits just steps from the sand, where you can relax to the sound of crashing waves and watch the Dory boats launch right from your deck—absolutely priceless. This beach-level 3-bedroom retreat is finished with quality touches throughout, including granite countertops, stainless appliances, and an ocean-view jetted tub in the primary suite. The spacious deck is perfect for entertaining, or soaking in those breathtaking sunsets. Enjoy access to Headlands Lodge amenities, including fitness facilities and more, all while owning three deeded weeks per year forever! A carefree and affordable way to own a piece of the Oregon Coast and make Pacific City part of your story.

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• Spacious deck
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $60k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.8% vs local median 1.7% in Pacific City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#173 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment B, housing B; Watch: commute D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Nestucca Valley SD 101J (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #101 of 183 in OR (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nestucca K8 (math 10% / reading 44%, grade F, #288 of 412 statewide, top 73%, 349 students, 70% FRL); Nestucca High School (math 15% / reading 50%, grade F, #102 of 143 statewide, top 73%, 162 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 54% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $966 of equity ($470 loan paydown + $496 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $59,837 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.00%
• DSCR: 3.94
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,433
• List price: $67,997
• Delta: 12.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $67,384
• Equity at exit: $22,260

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.27×
• Total profit: $157,526
• Equity at exit: $28,858

Cash invested: $19,039 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97135

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$85 /mo · $1,020/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$458
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $1,047

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,175

Max offer price $67,997

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,094	-5% $1,071	+0% $1,047	+5% $1,024	+10% $1,000
Rent	-10% $850	-5% $948	+0% $1,047	+5% $1,146	+10% $1,245
Rate	-1.0pp $1,081	-0.5pp $1,064	base $1,047	+0.5pp $1,029	+1.0pp $1,012

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,999
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35480 Salal Ln Pacific City, OR	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,500	$1.67	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $458 · $5,496/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $67,997 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $67,997 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,997 Active 185 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,997 Active 184 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,997 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,997 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,997 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $67,997 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,997 Active 176 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $67,997 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $67,997 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,997 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $67,997 Active 170 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,997 Active 169 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,997 Active 168 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,997 Active 167 DOM
17. 2025-10-13
    listed $67,997 Active 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    3 Weeks Every Year! An affordable way to guarantee your beach time in beautiful Pacific City! This oceanfront cottage sits just steps from the sand, where you can relax to the sound of crashing waves and watch the Dory boats launch right from your deck—absolutely priceless. This beach-level 3-bedroom retreat is finished with quality touches throughout, including granite countertops, stainless appliances, and an ocean-view jetted tub in the primary suite. The spacious deck is perfect for entertaining, or soaking in those breathtaking sunsets. Enjoy access to Headlands Lodge amenities, including fitness facilities and more, all while owning three deeded weeks per year forever! A carefree and affordable way to own a piece of the Oregon Coast and make Pacific City part of your story.

18. 2023-11-02
    listed $68,997 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥77°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$1,020
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$5,496
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $12,557
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,014
• After-tax cash flow: $9,551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nestucca Valley SD 101J
• NCES district ID: 4108700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,958
• Composite: 37.3/100
• National rank: #8956
• State rank: #101 of 183 in OR

Livability — Pacific City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #173
• US rank: #10340

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pacific City, OR
• City population: 1,505
• Population (ZIP): 1,505

Population outlook (Tillamook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,318 people
• By 2030: 26,603 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 26,898 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 27,129 · +3.1%
• By 2075: 27,858 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 26,212 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Italian 5% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tillamook

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 49.2% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+5.9 2012: D+4.7 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Current HPI: 197.7747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-1.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-13 Listed $67,997 OCMLS
• 2023-11-02 Listed $68,997 OCMLS