276 N El Camino Real Real #44

Oceanside, CA 92058

$319,500D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,971/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,675
• Tax + insurance: −$658
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $14/mo
• Annual: $165/yr
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.86%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $89,460

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($165/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (7.0% below list).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $297k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#413 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A; Watch: crime D, cost of living F, health & safety D-.
• Oceanside Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #221 of 517 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Louise Foussat Elementary (525 students, 80% FRL); Jefferson Middle (466 students, 94% FRL); Oceanside High (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,907 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 47% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 69 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $169k; list at $320k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.5% in Oceanside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,971/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 4169% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?