9965 Rising Star Ln

Canadian Lakes, MI 49346

$239,000D-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,896 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$398
• HOA: −$73
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-145/mo
• Annual: $-1,736/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.59%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $66,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $239k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (16.3% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $200k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#541 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Chippewa Hills School District (rural): math 24% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #324 of 540 in MI (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mecosta Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #433 of 1,397 statewide, top 34%, 228 students, 66% FRL); Chippewa Hills Intermediate School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #372 of 493 statewide, top 77%, 513 students, 69% FRL); Chippewa Hills High School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 476 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 116 units permitted in Mecosta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mecosta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 12 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.