9965 Rising Star Ln · Canadian Lakes, MI 49346

$239,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,896 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 1976 0.43 ac lot Est $246k · at est. $73/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in a peaceful setting in Canadian Lakes, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, recreation, and tranquility. You will love hearing the songbirds and watching the deer from the large covered wrap around porch. Inside you'll find a nice layout with cathedral ceilings, a spacious open living room and dining area, two main floor bedrooms, natural gas heat and central AC. Upstairs features a roomy loft with separate bedroom and 1/2 bath, while the partially finished walkout basement offers an additional bedroom and bonus room for guests, hobbies, or entertaining. Additional highlights include a cement circle driveway, 1-stall attached garage, whole house generator, fenced backyard, and close proximity to thousands of acres of public forest plus all of the amenities that Canadian Lakes offers including FREE golf on the Pines & Highlands courses, FREE pool and fitness center, plus access to lakes, beaches, boat docking, tennis, pickleball, dog parks, shopping and more!

Key facts

• Access to lakes
• Cathedral ceilings
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• SPACIOUS OPEN LIVING ROOM
• CEMENT CIRCLE DRIVEWAY
• WHOLE HOUSE GENERATOR
• FENCED BACKYARD
• ACCESS TO LAKES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, indoor pool, pool, spa/hot tub, sauna, tennis courts, playground, meeting room, library, storage, restaurant/bar, security, boat launch, airport landing strip, baseball diamond, beach area, campground, skiing, and pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Well water; Natural gas connected; Cable connected; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Chalet-style single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1976; Wood siding; Composition roof; Partial basement
• Exterior features: Recreational lot; Wooded setting; Located in a golf community

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.0% in Canadian Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#541 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Chippewa Hills School District (rural): math 24% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #324 of 540 in MI (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mecosta Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #433 of 1,397 statewide, top 34%, 228 students, 66% FRL); Chippewa Hills Intermediate School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #372 of 493 statewide, top 77%, 513 students, 69% FRL); Chippewa Hills High School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 476 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 116 units permitted in Mecosta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mecosta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 12 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $200,000 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.59%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9965 Rising Star Ln	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,896 (0%)	0mo	$225,000	$119	100
12480 Lone Wolf Trl	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,856 (-2%)	10mo	$200,000	$108	63
10165 Lost Canyon Dr	0.56mi	4/1.5	1,836 (-3%)	16mo	$247,500	$135	56
12479 Pine Mesa Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0	2,160 (+14%)	13mo	$248,000	$115	55
11982 Trail Creek Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,965 (+4%)	12mo	$275,000	$140	54
12462 Lone Wolf Trl	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,072 (+9%)	9mo	$228,000	$110	50
10302 Mountain View Trl	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (-7%)	12mo	$230,000	$130	50
9742 Golf Port Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,774 (-6%)	5mo	$80,000	$45	49
9650 Pere Marquette Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,944 (+2%)	22mo	$277,000	$142	48
12290 San Rafael Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,744 (-8%)	13mo	$320,000	$183	46
9770 Golf Port Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,976 (+4%)	21mo	$180,000	$91	44
9210 Timberlane Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (-14%)	14mo	$219,900	$135	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-47,868
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-53,243
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49346

• Home prices YoY: -27.2%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$73
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,183

Max offer price $218,065

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-62	+0% $-145	+5% $-227	+10% $-310
Rent	-10% $-303	-5% $-224	+0% $-145	+5% $-66	+10% $13
Rate	-1.0pp $-24	-0.5pp $-84	base $-145	+0.5pp $-207	+1.0pp $-270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9210 Timberlane Dr Stanwood, MI	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,000	$1.23	5d	1	0.74mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $73 · $876/yr
• Likely covers: gaspoolgym

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-05-19
   listed $239,000 Active 998-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   Nestled in a peaceful setting in Canadian Lakes, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, recreation, and tranquility. You will love hearing the songbirds and watching the deer from the large covered wrap around porch. Inside you'll find a nice layout with cathedral ceilings, a spacious open living room and dining area, two main floor bedrooms, natural gas heat and central AC. Upstairs features a roomy loft with separate bedroom and 1/2 bath, while the partially finished walkout basement offers an additional bedroom and bonus room for guests, hobbies, or entertaining. Additional highlights include a cement circle driveway, 1-stall attached garage, whole house generator, fenced backyard, and close proximity to thousands of acres of public forest plus all of the amenities that Canadian Lakes offers including FREE golf on the Pines & Highlands courses, FREE pool and fitness center, plus access to lakes, beaches, boat docking, tennis, pickleball, dog parks, shopping and more!

2. 2026-05-19
   listed $239,000 Active 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   Nestled in a peaceful setting in Canadian Lakes, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, recreation, and tranquility. You will love hearing the songbirds and watching the deer from the large covered wrap around porch. Inside you'll find a nice layout with cathedral ceilings, a spacious open living room and dining area, two main floor bedrooms, natural gas heat and central AC. Upstairs features a roomy loft with separate bedroom and 1/2 bath, while the partially finished walkout basement offers an additional bedroom and bonus room for guests, hobbies, or entertaining. Additional highlights include a cement circle driveway, 1-stall attached garage, whole house generator, fenced backyard, and close proximity to thousands of acres of public forest plus all of the amenities that Canadian Lakes offers including FREE golf on the Pines & Highlands courses, FREE pool and fitness center, plus access to lakes, beaches, boat docking, tennis, pickleball, dog parks, shopping and more!

3. 2026-05-19
   listed $239,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   Nestled in a peaceful setting in Canadian Lakes, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, recreation, and tranquility. You will love hearing the songbirds and watching the deer from the large covered wrap around porch. Inside you'll find a nice layout with cathedral ceilings, a spacious open living room and dining area, two main floor bedrooms, natural gas heat and central AC. Upstairs features a roomy loft with separate bedroom and 1/2 bath, while the partially finished walkout basement offers an additional bedroom and bonus room for guests, hobbies, or entertaining. Additional highlights include a cement circle driveway, 1-stall attached garage, whole house generator, fenced backyard, and close proximity to thousands of acres of public forest plus all of the amenities that Canadian Lakes offers including FREE golf on the Pines & Highlands courses, FREE pool and fitness center, plus access to lakes, beaches, boat docking, tennis, pickleball, dog parks, shopping and more!

4. 2021-02-24
   soldstatus $164,900
5. 2021-02-01
   soldstatus $164,900 Sold
6. 2021-02-01
   soldstatus $164,900 Sold
7. 2020-10-21
   status Pending
8. 2020-10-21
   historical
9. 2020-10-19
   listed $159,900
10. 2020-10-19
    listed $159,900 Active
11. 2020-10-19
    listed $159,900
12. 2019-07-08
    soldstatus $127,600
13. 2019-07-08
    soldstatus $127,600 Sold
14. 2019-06-24
    status Pending
15. 2019-06-03
    historical Active Contingent
16. 2019-06-01
    price $127,500
17. 2019-05-01
    price $130,000
18. 2019-03-30
    listed $127,500
19. 2019-03-30
    listed $135,000 Active
20. 2019-03-30
    listed $127,500
21. 2017-07-21
    soldstatus $114,500
22. 2017-07-21
    soldstatus $114,500 Sold
23. 2017-07-21
    soldstatus $114,500
24. 2017-05-24
    historical Active Contingent
25. 2017-05-12
    status Active
26. 2017-05-02
    historical Active Contingent
27. 2016-09-13
    listed $114,900 Active
28. 2016-09-13
    listed $114,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,585
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$876
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$5,836
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,401
• After-tax cash flow: $-335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chippewa Hills School District
• NCES district ID: 2609560
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,598
• Composite: 28.01/100
• National rank: #6849
• State rank: #324 of 540 in MI

Livability — Canadian Lakes

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #16622

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canadian Lakes, MI
• Population (ZIP): 4,851

Population outlook (Mecosta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,954 people
• By 2030: 42,954 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 41,574 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 39,250 · -8.6%
• By 2075: 32,628 · -24.0%
• By 2100: 27,476 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecosta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.0) · D 34.2% · R 64.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.3pp toward R · 2008: -0.7pp · 2024: -30.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.0 2020: R+28.0 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.8 2008: R+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.43%
• Current HPI: 196.1356
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+95.8% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) $225,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) $225,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) $225,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-29 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-29 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-29 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $239,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-19 Listed $239,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $239,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $164,900 Public Records
• 2021-02-01 Sold (MLS) $164,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-02-01 Sold (MLS) $164,900 REALCOMP
• 2020-10-21 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-10-21 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2020-10-19 Listed $159,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-10-19 Listed $159,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-10-19 Listed $159,900 REALCOMP
• 2019-07-08 Sold (MLS) $127,600 SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-07-08 Sold (MLS) $127,600 REALCOMP
• 2019-06-24 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-06-03 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-06-01 Price Changed $127,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-05-01 Price Changed $130,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-03-30 Listed $127,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-03-30 Listed $135,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-03-30 Listed $127,500 REALCOMP
• 2017-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $114,500 Public Records
• 2017-07-21 Sold (MLS) $114,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2017-07-21 Sold (MLS) $114,500 REALCOMP
• 2017-05-24 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2017-05-12 Relisted — SW Michigan MLS
• 2017-05-02 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2016-09-13 Listed $114,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2016-09-13 Listed $114,900 REALCOMP