3740 Blackwood Rd #32

South Lake Tahoe, CA 96150

$185,990B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Active · 323 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,470/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$975
• Tax + insurance: −$310
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $666/mo
• Annual: $7,990/yr
• Cap rate: 10.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.34%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $52,077

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $186k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $666 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $186k).
• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#371 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, commute F.
• Lake Tahoe Unified (town): math 33% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #786 of 1,400 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.5% in South Lake Tahoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.