3740 Blackwood Rd #32 · South Lake Tahoe, CA 96150

$185,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · Manufactured · 323 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition $202/sqft · 57% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Tahoe living in this all ages Manufactured Home Community. Centrally located to everything SPECIAL about South Lake! Home site #32 includes our black appliance package (fridge, stove, oven and microwave). Stop on by and see how adorable this home is in person!

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• New appliances
• Granite counters

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERS
• VINYL FLOORING
• NEW APPLIANCES
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $186k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $666 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $186k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.5% in South Lake Tahoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#371 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, commute F.
• Lake Tahoe Unified (town): math 33% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #786 of 1,400 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,671 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.34%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,225
• List price: $185,990
• Delta: 57.32%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3740 Blackwood Rd #40	0.00mi	3/2.0	900 (-2%)	9mo	$120,000	$133	89
3740 Blackwood Rd #42	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-2%)	0mo	$140,000	$156	87
3740 Blackwood Rd #52	0.04mi	3/2.0	840 (-9%)	2mo	$130,000	$155	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $13,705
• Equity at exit: $27,732

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $72,499
• Equity at exit: $16,081

Cash invested: $52,077 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96150

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,470 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$975
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$232 /mo · $2,790/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $666

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,627

Max offer price $185,990

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,498
• Closing costs: $5,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3624 Terry Ln Unit 26 South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.0	728	$1,895	$2.60	16d	1	0.18mi
3720 Ruby Way Unit 2 South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,300	$2.42	43d	1	0.38mi
1116 Herbert Ave South Lake Tahoe, CA	3.0	1.0	896	$2,495	$2.78	43d	1	0.44mi
1439 Ski Run Blvd Unit D-2 South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,200	$2.20	17d	1	0.48mi
1439 Ski Run Blvd Unit E1 South Lake Tahoe, CA	3.0	2.0	1060	$2,500	$2.36	20d	1	0.48mi
1439 Ski Run Blvd Unit H1 South Lake Tahoe, CA	3.0	1.5	1060	$3,250	$3.07	23d	1	0.49mi
3679 Alder Ave South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	2.0	683	$2,200	$3.22	3d	1	0.53mi
3780 Stewart Way Unit 6 South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.0	616	$2,500	$4.06	12d	1	0.54mi
3716 Pioneer Trl Unit 4 South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	43d	1	0.57mi
3361 Heavenly Valley Rd South Lake Tahoe, CA	3.0	2.0	1092	$3,600	$3.30	43d	1	0.77mi
3815 Forest Ave Unit A South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,450	$2.45	23d	1	0.78mi
3841 Pentagon Rd Unit 3 South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	17d	1	0.87mi
1070 Echo Rd Unit EME6 South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,795	$2.11	15d	1	1.08mi
1037 Fern Rd South Lake Tahoe, CA	2.0	1.5	1080	$2,400	$2.22	43d	1	1.15mi
966 Modesto Ave South Lake Tahoe, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	450	$1,590	$3.53	1d	2	1.26mi
945 Alameda Ave South Lake Tahoe, CA	3.0	1.0	1008	$2,700	$2.68	43d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,990 Active 323 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,990 Active 322 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,990 Active 321 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,990 Active 320 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,990 Active 318 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,990 Active 314 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,990 Active 313 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,990 Active 312 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $185,990 Active 308 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,990 Active 307 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,990 Active 306 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,990 Active 305 DOM
13. 2026-04-15
    listed $189,990 Active 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Beautiful Tahoe living in this all ages Manufactured Home Community. Centrally located to everything SPECIAL about South Lake! Home site #32 includes our black appliance package (fridge, stove, oven and microwave). Stop on by and see how adorable this home is in person!

14. 2024-09-29
    price $185,990
15. 2024-09-28
    listed $185,990,000 Active
16. 2024-01-26
    listed $185,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,418
• − Property taxes: −$2,790
• − Insurance: −$930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,371
• − Management: −$2,371
• − Depreciation: −$5,411
• Taxable income: $5,347
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,283
• After-tax cash flow: $6,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready manufactured home in South Lake Tahoe features new kitchen and bathrooms, fresh paint, and new flooring, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be outdated and is more difficult to clean
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be outdated and is more difficult to clean ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Tahoe Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620640
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,114
• Composite: 35.24/100
• National rank: #9844
• State rank: #786 of 1400 in CA

Livability — South Lake Tahoe

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #12667

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Lake Tahoe, CA
• County: El Dorado County · 144,198 people
• City population: 29,646
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 29,646
• Household income: $92,517
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -571.55%
• Current HPI: 316.6411
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+2.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $189,990 STARMLS
• 2024-09-29 Price Changed $185,990 STARMLS
• 2024-09-28 Listed $185,990,000 STARMLS
• 2024-01-26 Listed $185,990 STARMLS