Springfield III Plan

Jacksonville, FL 32234

$322,990D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,317 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,454/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,927
• Tax + insurance: −$612
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-701/mo
• Annual: $-8,410/yr
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.17%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $102,899

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $323k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-701 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (24.0% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($313k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $245k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mamie Agnes Jones Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 430 students, 61% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); Marine Science Education Center (31 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 381 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 58d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.