Springfield III Plan · Jacksonville, FL 32234

$322,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,317 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

The Springfield III offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 2,317 square feet of comfortable living space. On the first floor, an open-concept design creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, casual dining area, and spacious family room-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features ample counter space, a pantry, and easy access to the dining area. Just off the main living space, a covered lanai extends your living outdoors. The private primary suite is conveniently located on the first floor and includes a walk-in closet and a well-appointed bath for a relaxing retreat.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Well-appointed bath
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• COVERED LANAI
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WELL-APPOINTED BATH
• VERSATILE LOFT SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $322,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $367,495.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $323k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-701 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mamie Agnes Jones Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 430 students, 61% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); Marine Science Education Center (31 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 380 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 58d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($313k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,417 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.17%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $367,495
• List price: $322,990
• Delta: -12.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5780 Lagoon Cruise Way	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,246 (-3%)	2mo	$364,990	$163	88
5724 Lagoon Cruise Way	0.01mi	4/3.0	2,500 (+8%)	5mo	$384,990	$154	80
15432 Bareback Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,304 (-1%)	1mo	$296,000	$128	76
5733 Lagoon Cruise Way	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,500 (+8%)	8mo	$389,990	$156	75
15330 Bareback Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,330 (+1%)	16mo	$299,000	$128	74
5797 Lagoon Cruise Way	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,201 (-5%)	4mo	$354,000	$161	73
5709 Lagoon Cruise Way	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,500 (+8%)	5mo	$387,990	$155	69
6118 Black Filly Ln	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,330 (+1%)	18mo	$337,900	$145	65
15336 Spotted Stallion Trl	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,262 (-2%)	19mo	$285,000	$126	64
15391 Hidden Foal Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	2,116 (-9%)	1mo	$320,000	$151	63
15528 Bareback Dr	0.50mi	4/4.0	2,553 (+10%)	16mo	$358,000	$140	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-47,444
• Equity at exit: $115,056

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-41,143
• Equity at exit: $145,153

Cash invested: $102,899 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 36 active · 27 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.5 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $348,490 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 44 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32234

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 380
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,454 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,927
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$459 /mo · $5,512/yr
• Insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-701

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,341

Max offer price $266,078

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-447	-5% $-574	+0% $-701	+5% $-828	+10% $-955
Rent	-10% $-895	-5% $-798	+0% $-701	+5% $-604	+10% $-507
Rate	-1.0pp $-516	-0.5pp $-607	base $-701	+0.5pp $-796	+1.0pp $-893

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,874
• Closing costs: $11,025
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5724 Lagoon Cruise Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	2494	$2,800	$1.12	100d	1	0.01mi
15246 Hidden Foal Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,900	$1.10	107d	1	0.19mi
15180 Bareback Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$1,899	$1.03	81d	1	0.21mi
15574 Palfrey Chase Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1862	$1,995	$1.07	57d	1	0.71mi
6137 Black Stallion Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1862	$1,995	$1.07	0d	1	0.77mi
6137 Black Stallion Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1862	$1,955	$1.05	57d	1	0.77mi
6092 Bucking Bronco Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,995	$1.12	103d	1	1.02mi
15729 Equine Gait Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,850	$1.12	9d	1	1.02mi
15647 Woodbury Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1863	$2,079	$1.12	0d	15	1.22mi
15818 Queensway Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1446	$2,715	$1.88	0d	1	1.39mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 5748 Lagoon Cruise Way, Jacksonville FL 32234List price: $321,990Status: Active
• HOA & community: Association fee: $100

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (plan model Springfield III)
• Construction: New construction (plan inventory)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,317

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan model: Springfield IIINew construction plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $322,990 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $322,990 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $322,990 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   pricedays on market $322,990 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $321,990 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $321,990 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $321,990 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $321,990 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $321,990 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $321,990 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $321,990 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $321,990 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $321,990 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $321,990 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-08-31
    days on market $321,990 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $321,990 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $321,990 Active 11 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $321,990 Active 10 DOM
19. 2026-08-25
    days on market $321,990 Active 8 DOM
20. 2026-08-24
    days on market $321,990 Active 7 DOM
21. 2026-08-23
    days on market $321,990 Active 6 DOM
22. 2026-08-22
    days on market $321,990 Active 5 DOM
23. 2026-08-21
    days on market $321,990 Active 4 DOM
24. 2026-08-20
    days on market $321,990 Active 3 DOM
25. 2026-08-19
    days on market $321,990 Active 2 DOM
26. 2026-08-17
    days on marketlisting id $321,990 Active 1 DOM
27. 2026-08-16
    days on market $321,990 Active 107 DOM
28. 2026-08-15
    days on market $321,990 Active 106 DOM
29. 2026-08-14
    days on market $321,990 Active 105 DOM
30. 2026-08-13
    days on market $321,990 Active 104 DOM
31. 2026-08-12
    days on market $321,990 Active 103 DOM
32. 2026-08-11
    days on market $321,990 Active 102 DOM
33. 2026-08-10
    days on market $321,990 Active 101 DOM
34. 2026-08-09
    days on market $321,990 Active 100 DOM
35. 2026-08-08
    days on market $321,990 Active 99 DOM
36. 2026-08-07
    days on market $321,990 Active 98 DOM
37. 2026-08-06
    days on market $321,990 Active 97 DOM
38. 2026-08-05
    days on market $321,990 Active 96 DOM
39. 2026-08-04
    days on market $321,990 Active 95 DOM
40. 2026-08-03
    days on market $321,990 Active 94 DOM
41. 2026-07-31
    days on market $321,990 Active 91 DOM
42. 2026-07-30
    days on market $321,990 Active 90 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $321,990 Active 89 DOM
44. 2026-07-28
    days on market $321,990 Active 88 DOM
45. 2026-07-24
    days on market $321,990 Active 84 DOM
46. 2026-07-23
    days on market $321,990 Active 83 DOM
47. 2026-07-22
    days on market $321,990 Active 82 DOM
48. 2026-07-21
    days on market $321,990 Active 81 DOM
49. 2026-07-18
    days on market $321,990 Active 78 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $321,990 Active 77 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,585
• − Property taxes: −$5,512
• − Insurance: −$1,837
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,356
• − Management: −$2,356
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$10,691
• Taxable loss: −$15,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,621
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This Springfield III home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 2,317 square feet of comfortable living space. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mamie Agnes Jones Elementary School C- FL #990/2,144 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Joseph Stilwell Middle School F FL #448/571 Nat'l #8,317/14,009 High Baldwin Middle-Senior High School F FL #328/667 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

A Composite livability gradescore 83/100

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,013,010 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,678
• Household income: $87,331
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 33% of renters

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Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Current HPI: 288.4613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 5748 Lagoon Cruise Way, Jacksonville FL 32234List price: $321,990Status: Active
• HOA & community: Association fee: $100

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (plan model Springfield III)
• Construction: New construction (plan inventory)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,317

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan model: Springfield IIINew construction plan