Bellamy Plan

Berthoud, CO 80513

$512,990B

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,125 sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,151/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,690
• Tax + insurance: −$855
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,712
• Net cashflow: $2,894/mo
• Annual: $34,730/yr
• Cap rate: 13.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.18%
• DSCR: 2.08
• 1% rule: 1.59%
• Cash to close: $143,637

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $513k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($35k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $513k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($505k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $505k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#100 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Thompson School District R-2J (suburban): math 28% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #28 of 86 in CO (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 357 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $144k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.2% in Berthoud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $8,151/mo this rent would consume 77% of the median local household income ($127k/yr) (locally 55% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.