437 Castle Creek Rd

Chenango Bridge, NY 13901

$175,000C

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,457 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Pending · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,799/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$378
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $126/mo
• Annual: $1,508/yr
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#505 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Chenango Forks Central School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #317 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chenango Forks Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 598 students, 41% FRL); Chenango Forks Middle School (math 25% / reading 51%, grade F, #442 of 729 statewide, top 61%, 303 students, 39% FRL); Chenango Forks High School (math 98% / reading 98%, grade A+, #19 of 1,100 statewide, top 4%, 442 students, 37% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $175k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.0% in Chenango Bridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.