437 Castle Creek Rd · Chenango Bridge, NY 13901

$175,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,457 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1951 Est $332k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1951
• Listed 156 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.0% in Chenango Bridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#505 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Chenango Forks Central School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #317 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chenango Forks Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 598 students, 41% FRL); Chenango Forks Middle School (math 25% / reading 51%, grade F, #442 of 729 statewide, top 61%, 303 students, 39% FRL); Chenango Forks High School (math 98% / reading 98%, grade A+, #19 of 1,100 statewide, top 4%, 442 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $175k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $331,695
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
74 W Chenango Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,289 (-7%)	11mo	$309,000	$135	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-20,276
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,026
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13901

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,799 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,662/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,640

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $225	-5% $175	+0% $126	+5% $76	+10% $27
Rent	-10% $-17	-5% $55	+0% $126	+5% $197	+10% $268
Rate	-1.0pp $214	-0.5pp $170	base $126	+0.5pp $80	+1.0pp $34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-12-24
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-03
   price $175,000
3. 2025-09-05
   price $190,000
4. 2025-09-03
   status Active
5. 2025-08-15
   status Pending
6. 2025-07-02
   listed $201,000 Active
7. 2003-06-30
   soldstatus $95,000
8. 1999-05-10
   soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,662 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,662 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,662
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,294
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$311
• After-tax cash flow: $1,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chenango Forks Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607260
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $54,346
• Composite: 46.46/100
• National rank: #2442
• State rank: #317 of 590 in NY

Livability — Chenango Bridge

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #8828

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Broome County · 126,805 people
• Metro: Binghamton, NY
• Population (ZIP): 19,613
• Household income: $55,523
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1230.0

Population outlook (Broome County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 187,989 people
• By 2030: 183,066 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 172,228 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 163,161 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 153,641 · -18.3%
• By 2100: 140,851 · -25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Broome

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.0pp · 2024: 0.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.4 2020: D+3.5 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+8.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.13%
• Current HPI: 300.7692
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Binghamton, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-24 Pending — GBAOR
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $175,000 GBAOR
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $190,000 GBAOR
• 2025-09-03 Relisted — GBAOR
• 2025-08-15 Pending — GBAOR
• 2025-07-02 Listed $201,000 GBAOR
• 2003-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 1999-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,662 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.