230 Cut Off #126

Port Aransas, TX 78373

$299,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,093 sqft · Built 1983 · Townhouse · Active · 257 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,029/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$542
• HOA: −$559
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $-281/mo
• Annual: $-3,370/yr
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.01%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (16.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• It's been on market 257 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#525 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Port Aransas ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #68 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Olsen El (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 227 students, 35% FRL); Brundrett Middle (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B+, #134 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 115 students, 31% FRL); Port Aransas H S (math 74% / reading 74%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 204 students, 19% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1024 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 1.1% in Port Aransas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 257 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?