428 Chestnut St

Newcomerstown, OH 43832

$132,900F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $850/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax + insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $-153/mo
• Annual: $-1,834/yr
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.93%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $37,212

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $133k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (36.0% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $919 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#951 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Newcomerstown Exempted Village (town): math 40% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #494 of 656 in OH (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 244 units permitted in Tuscarawas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuscarawas County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $133k implies a 564% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.