428 Chestnut St · Newcomerstown, OH 43832

$132,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1920 3,354 sqft lot Est $128k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A deep, spacious, covered and inviting front porch gives this property even more curb appeal. The home features upgraded vinyl siding, roof, replacement windows. The open concept living room and dining room give a roomy feel to the main living area. There is a convenient first floor bedroom, upgraded full bath on the first floor for more independent living should one need a ranch style property. The kitchen features upgraded flooring and countertop with ample counter space. Upstairs bedrooms both have closet space. Bonus--there is a 7 x 11 walk-in room off the one bedroom that would make a great place for hobbies, computer/office area, walk in closet, toy room or just for storage. The dorme

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Upgraded full bath
• Replacement windows

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• UPGRADED VINYL SIDING
• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• UPGRADED FULL BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $133k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (36.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#951 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Newcomerstown Exempted Village (town): math 40% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #494 of 656 in OH (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 244 units permitted in Tuscarawas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $919 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscarawas County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $133k implies a 564% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $85,000 (36.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.93%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,436
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
518 Riverview Dr	0.13mi	3/1.0	960 (+4%)	5mo	$135,000	$141	83
137 Downs Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	934 (+1%)	8mo	$150,000	$161	61
218 E Main Ext	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,057 (+14%)	4mo	$85,000	$80	52
312 S Lawn Dr	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (+13%)	18mo	$118,000	$113	45
523 W Carol St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,028 (+11%)	18mo	$142,500	$139	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-31,316
• Equity at exit: $19,816

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-39,989
• Equity at exit: $11,491

Cash invested: $37,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43832

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $864/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,043

Max offer price $105,897

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-78	-5% $-115	+0% $-153	+5% $-190	+10% $-228
Rent	-10% $-220	-5% $-186	+0% $-153	+5% $-119	+10% $-86
Rate	-1.0pp $-86	-0.5pp $-119	base $-153	+0.5pp $-187	+1.0pp $-222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,225
• Closing costs: $3,987
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
310 W Main St Apt C Newcomerstown, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$850	$1.06	44d	1	0.50mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $132,900
3. 2026-03-16
   listed $139,900 Active
4. 2012-06-01
   soldstatus $20,000
5. 2012-03-02
   historical
6. 2011-11-02
   listed $18,000
7. 2005-11-10
   historical
8. 2005-05-10
   listed $52,000
9. 2001-11-07
   historical
10. 2001-05-07
    listed $59,700
11. 1997-05-13
    soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $864 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,469 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$604/yr (+$50/mo · 69.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,444
• − Property taxes: −$864
• − Insurance: −$664
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$3,866
• Taxable loss: −$4,272
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,025
• After-tax cash flow: $-809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newcomerstown Exempted Village
• NCES district ID: 3904554
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,463
• Composite: 38.83/100
• National rank: #4108
• State rank: #494 of 656 in OH

Livability — Newcomerstown

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #951
• US rank: #18329

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newcomerstown, OH
• County: Tuscarawas · 99,287 people
• Population (ZIP): 7,088
• Household income: $50,941
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own

Population outlook (Tuscarawas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,253 people
• By 2030: 91,060 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 87,479 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 83,174 · -9.8%
• By 2075: 72,000 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 58,574 · -36.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscarawas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 28.0% · R 71.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.7pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+39.9 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+9.8 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.02%
• Current HPI: 191.3232
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+302.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $132,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-03-16 Listed $139,900 MLSNOW
• 2012-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2012-03-02 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2011-11-02 Listed $18,000 MLSNOW
• 2005-11-10 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2005-05-10 Listed $52,000 MLSNOW
• 2001-11-07 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2001-05-07 Listed $59,700 MLSNOW
• 1997-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $864 · +29.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.