413 S Main St

Jellico, TN 37762

$72,900A-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,234 sqft · Built 1906 · SingleFamily · Pending · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,048/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$382
• Tax + insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $381/mo
• Annual: $4,573/yr
• Cap rate: 12.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.41%
• DSCR: 2.00
• 1% rule: 1.44%
• Cash to close: $20,412

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $73k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $73k).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($504 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#352 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Campbell County (rural): math 19% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #120 of 139 in TN (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 111 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Campbell County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $73k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 4.3% in Jellico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.