413 S Main St · Jellico, TN 37762

$72,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,234 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1906 2,613 sqft lot Est $137k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Key facts

• 2,613 sq ft lot
• Built 1906
• Listed 67 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Designated parking
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property; Approximately 1,000 building area (per tax records)
• Construction: Vinyl siding and block construction
• Exterior features: Level lot; Mountain, country and city views

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Self-cleaning oven
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas and electric); Central cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Eight total rooms; Crawl space basement; Freestanding fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 4.3% in Jellico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#352 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Campbell County (rural): math 19% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #120 of 139 in TN (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 111 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($504 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Campbell County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $73k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,526 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.41%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,974
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
189 Bacon St	0.04mi	2/1.0	1,350 (+9%)	7mo	$110,000	$81	77
591 Ellison St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+14%)	3mo	$180,000	$128	60
471 Cumberland Ave	0.37mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,329 (+8%)	10mo	$165,000	$124	55
319 Kentucky St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,328 (+8%)	12mo	$148,000	$111	55
675 Lloyd St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (-11%)	14mo	$110,000	$100	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $31,664
• Equity at exit: $31,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $80,418
• Equity at exit: $47,160

Cash invested: $20,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37762

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,048 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$382
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $412/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $566

Max offer price $72,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,225
• Closing costs: $2,187
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $72,900 Pending 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $72,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $72,900 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $72,900 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $72,900 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $72,900 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $72,900 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $72,900 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-04-05
    listed $78,900 Active
11. 2009-12-07
    soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $412 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $518 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$106/yr (+$9/mo · 25.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥99°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,084
• − Property taxes: −$412
• − Insurance: −$364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,006
• − Management: −$1,006
• − Depreciation: −$2,121
• Taxable income: $3,586
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$861
• After-tax cash flow: $3,713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County
• NCES district ID: 4700420
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,606
• Composite: 15.84/100
• National rank: #9262
• State rank: #120 of 139 in TN

Livability — Jellico

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #23161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jellico, TN
• City population: 2,528
• Population (ZIP): 2,528

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,507 people
• By 2030: 35,989 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 32,773 · -12.6%
• By 2050: 29,475 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 21,972 · -41.4%
• By 2100: 15,332 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.8% · R 84.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.0pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+66.2 2016: R+60.9 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+37.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.64%
• Current HPI: 418.949
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+139.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Listed $78,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2009-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $412 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.