9455 Valle Dr

Cuba, NY 14727

$29,900B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,016/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $596/mo
• Annual: $7,149/yr
• Cap rate: 30.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.39%
• DSCR: 4.80
• 1% rule: 3.40%
• Cash to close: $8,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $596 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#309 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bolivar-Richburg Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #395 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bolivar-Richburg Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 346 students, 57% FRL); Bolivar-Richburg Junior-Senior High School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 341 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 30.2% vs local median 3.1% in Cuba — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.