9455 Valle Dr · Cuba, NY 14727

$29,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1999 5.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Wooded 5.6-acre lot with a flat area well-suited for a new cabin or campsite. Drilled well, septic system, and electric service already in place. The existing structure is a total loss and will need to be removed. Priced accordingly.

Key facts

• Flat area
• Electric service
• Wooded lot

Tags

• WOODED LOT
• FLAT AREA
• DRILLED WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• ELECTRIC SERVICE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Dirt driveway access
• Utilities: Electricity available; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story property
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Outbuilding; Wooded vegetation; Rolling and sloping terrain; Lot with irregular shape and gentle to rolling slopes; Private road/right-of-way frontage

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $596 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Cap rate 30.2% vs local median 3.1% in Cuba — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#309 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bolivar-Richburg Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #395 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $29,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.39%
• DSCR: 4.80
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.82×
• Total profit: $48,708
• Equity at exit: $21,050

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.6%
• Equity multiple: 14.52×
• Total profit: $113,192
• Equity at exit: $40,288

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14727

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,016 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $448/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $616	-5% $606	+0% $596	+5% $585	+10% $575
Rent	-10% $515	-5% $556	+0% $596	+5% $636	+10% $676
Rate	-1.0pp $611	-0.5pp $603	base $596	+0.5pp $588	+1.0pp $580

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $29,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥89°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$448
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$975
• − Management: −$975
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $7,095
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,703
• After-tax cash flow: $5,446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bolivar-Richburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600012
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $40,153
• Composite: 42.26/100
• National rank: #3277
• State rank: #395 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cuba

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #5131

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,039

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.17%
• Current HPI: 298.31
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $29,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,221 · +29.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.