18040 E Holt Rd

Lincoln, AR 72744

$330,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Pending · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,316/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax + insurance: −$277
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-968/mo
• Annual: $-11,610/yr
• Cap rate: 2.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.57%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.40%
• Cash to close: $92,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-968 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (51.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (60.1% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (60.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#273 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Lincoln School District (rural): math 34% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #139 of 238 in AR (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $330k implies a 588% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.