18040 E Holt Rd · Lincoln, AR 72744

$330,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1995 3.52 ac lot $159/sqft · 18% below area Est $401k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Searching for a home with character, space, and true country charm—this is it. This beautifully maintained farmhouse-style home in Lincoln, Arkansas, where classic design meets thoughtful updates. This is not a cookie-cutter new build—it’s a home that has been well cared for, upgraded where it matters, and full of warmth and personality. This property offers the perfect blend of peaceful country living with functional space for everyday life. Inside, you’ll find: ?? 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms ?? A layout designed for comfortable living ?? Updated systems including HVAC (2020), plumbing, electrical, and more ?? Spacious kitchen with ample cabinetry and large pantry for canning supplies Step outside and enjoy: ?? A stocked pond ?? Fenced areas ready for small livestock ?? Raised garden beds ?? Room to roam, relax, and truly enjoy your land This home has been lovingly updated without losing its farmhouse soul—giving you the best of both worlds: reliability and charm.

Key facts

• 3.52 acres
• Stocked pond
• Raised garden beds

Tags

• 3.52 ACRES
• STOCKED POND
• FENCED PASTURE
• ROOM FOR LIVESTOCK
• RAISED GARDEN BEDS
• PARTIAL METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-968 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (51.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (60.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (60.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#273 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Lincoln School District (rural): math 34% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #139 of 238 in AR (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $330k implies a 588% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,641 (60.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.40% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.57%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 20.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $400,886
• List price: $330,000
• Delta: -17.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $117,958
• Equity at exit: $297,290

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $395,530
• Equity at exit: $641,117

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72744

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 20.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,316 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,673/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-968

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,541

Max offer price $159,086

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $330,000 Pending 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $330,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $330,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $330,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $330,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $330,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-04-23
   price $330,000 1005-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

   Searching for a home with character, space, and true country charm—this is it. This beautifully maintained farmhouse-style home in Lincoln, Arkansas, where classic design meets thoughtful updates. This is not a cookie-cutter new build—it’s a home that has been well cared for, upgraded where it matters, and full of warmth and personality. This property offers the perfect blend of peaceful country living with functional space for everyday life. Inside, you’ll find: ?? 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms ?? A layout designed for comfortable living ?? Updated systems including HVAC (2020), plumbing, electrical, and more ?? Spacious kitchen with ample cabinetry and large pantry for canning supplies Step outside and enjoy: ?? A stocked pond ?? Fenced areas ready for small livestock ?? Raised garden beds ?? Room to roam, relax, and truly enjoy your land This home has been lovingly updated without losing its farmhouse soul—giving you the best of both worlds: reliability and charm.

8. 2026-03-12
   listed $355,000 Active 1005-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

   Searching for a home with character, space, and true country charm—this is it. This beautifully maintained farmhouse-style home in Lincoln, Arkansas, where classic design meets thoughtful updates. This is not a cookie-cutter new build—it’s a home that has been well cared for, upgraded where it matters, and full of warmth and personality. This property offers the perfect blend of peaceful country living with functional space for everyday life. Inside, you’ll find: ?? 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms ?? A layout designed for comfortable living ?? Updated systems including HVAC (2020), plumbing, electrical, and more ?? Spacious kitchen with ample cabinetry and large pantry for canning supplies Step outside and enjoy: ?? A stocked pond ?? Fenced areas ready for small livestock ?? Raised garden beds ?? Room to roam, relax, and truly enjoy your land This home has been lovingly updated without losing its farmhouse soul—giving you the best of both worlds: reliability and charm.

9. 2014-10-30
   soldstatus $48,000 380-char remark

   Show marketing remark (380 chars)

   Unique floor plan home sitting on 3.52 acres. This 3 bedroom / 2 bath home offers large living room, bonus room upstairs, den, and so much more. Schedule your showings today. ,BANK OWNED; SOLD AS IS; NO DISCLOSURE. BOA PREQUAL REQUIRED ON ALL OFFERS. CASH OFFERS REQUIRE PROOF OF FUNDS. 2-3 BUSINESS DAYS FOR SELLER RESPONSE. COMBINATION LOCKBOX; CALL THE LISTING OFFICE FOR CODE.

10. 2014-07-25
    listed $49,900 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Unique floor plan home sitting on 3.52 acres. This 3 bedroom / 2 bath home offers large living room, bonus room upstairs, den, and so much more. Schedule your showings today. ,BANK OWNED; SOLD AS IS; NO DISCLOSURE. BOA PREQUAL REQUIRED ON ALL OFFERS. CASH OFFERS REQUIRE PROOF OF FUNDS. 2-3 BUSINESS DAYS FOR SELLER RESPONSE. COMBINATION LOCKBOX; CALL THE LISTING OFFICE FOR CODE.

11. 2000-03-10
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,673 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,112 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$439/yr (+$37/mo · 26.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,797
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$1,673
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,264
• − Management: −$1,264
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$18,139
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,353
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln School District
• NCES district ID: 0508940
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,258
• Composite: 26.98/100
• National rank: #7070
• State rank: #139 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #273
• US rank: #19376

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,314

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,748 people
• By 2030: 296,414 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 346,874 · +27.6%
• By 2050: 398,552 · +46.7%
• By 2075: 523,309 · +92.6%
• By 2100: 615,280 · +126.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Two or more races 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.7) · D 45.1% · R 51.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -13.1pp · 2024: -6.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.7 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+10.4 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+13.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 36.10%
• Current HPI: 314.677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+1220.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $330,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $355,000 NWARMLS
• 2014-10-30 Sold (MLS) $48,000 NWARMLS
• 2014-07-25 Listed $49,900 NWARMLS
• 2000-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,673 · +29.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.