8401 Old Stage Rd Unit 56

Central Point, OR 97502

$95,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1975 · Land · Active · 109 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,094/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $1,093/mo
• Annual: $13,117/yr
• Cap rate: 20.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.31%
• DSCR: 3.19
• 1% rule: 2.20%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#3 in OR, #92 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Central Point SD 6 (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #42 of 58 in OR (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Patrick Elementary School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #263 of 412 statewide, top 68%, 229 students, 66% FRL); Hanby Middle School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #86 of 128 statewide, top 72%, 375 students, 75% FRL); Crater School of Business Innovation And Science (math 44% / reading 84%, grade B-, #16 of 143 statewide, top 12%, 496 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 2.9% in Central Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.