8401 Old Stage Rd Unit 56 · Gold Hill, OR 97502

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Land public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1975 $87/sqft · 23% below area Est $130k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained 3 bed, 2 bath home in the desirable Madrone Hills 55+ community. Fresh interior and exterior paint, along with new laminate wood flooring throughout. This home is light, bright, clean and move-in ready. The spacious primary suite offers a large bathroom and walk-in closet. Enjoy morning coffee or evening sunsets from the covered front porch with mountain views surrounding this private community. Outside, you'll find two storage sheds for added storage. Conveniently located with easy access to I-5 and just minutes from Laurel Hill Golf Course. Low-maintenance living in a peaceful setting. Call today to view this home!

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1975
• Listed 58 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 2.4% in Gold Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#220 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Point SD 6 (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #42 of 58 in OR (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.36%
• DSCR: 3.02
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,000
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -23.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $54,000
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $145,621
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97502

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,086 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $285/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $1,058

Break-even live

Break-even rent $747

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,115	-5% $1,087	+0% $1,058	+5% $1,030	+10% $1,002
Rent	-10% $894	-5% $976	+0% $1,058	+5% $1,141	+10% $1,223
Rate	-1.0pp $1,109	-0.5pp $1,084	base $1,058	+0.5pp $1,032	+1.0pp $1,006

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    listed $100,000 Active 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Well-maintained 3 bed, 2 bath home in the desirable Madrone Hills 55+ community. Fresh interior and exterior paint, along with new laminate wood flooring throughout. This home is light, bright, clean and move-in ready. The spacious primary suite offers a large bathroom and walk-in closet. Enjoy morning coffee or evening sunsets from the covered front porch with mountain views surrounding this private community. Outside, you'll find two storage sheds for added storage. Conveniently located with easy access to I-5 and just minutes from Laurel Hill Golf Course. Low-maintenance living in a peaceful setting. Call today to view this home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $285 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $970 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$685/yr (+$57/mo · 240.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$285
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,003
• − Management: −$2,003
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $11,734
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,816
• After-tax cash flow: $9,884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Point SD 6
• NCES district ID: 4102940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $49,736
• Composite: 26.09/100
• National rank: #7290
• State rank: #42 of 58 in OR

Livability — Gold Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #14969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 29,067
• Household income: $83,488
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 650.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -446.66%
• Current HPI: 252.2725
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.33%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $100,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $285 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.