8401 Old Stage Rd Unit 56 · Central Point, OR 97502

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Land public records · 109 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 1975 Good condition $82/sqft · 27% below area Est $130k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained 3 bed, 2 bath home in the desirable Madrone Hills 55+ community. Fresh interior and exterior paint, along with new laminate wood flooring throughout. This home is light, bright, clean and move-in ready. The spacious primary suite offers a large bathroom and walk-in closet. Enjoy morning coffee or evening sunsets from the covered front porch with mountain views surrounding this private community. Outside, you'll find two storage sheds for added storage. Conveniently located with easy access to I-5 and just minutes from Laurel Hill Golf Course. Low-maintenance living in a peaceful setting. Call today to view this home!

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1975
• Listed 108 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 2.9% in Central Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#3 in OR, #92 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Central Point SD 6 (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #42 of 58 in OR (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Patrick Elementary School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #263 of 412 statewide, top 68%, 229 students, 66% FRL); Hanby Middle School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #86 of 128 statewide, top 72%, 375 students, 75% FRL); Crater School of Business Innovation And Science (math 44% / reading 84%, grade B-, #16 of 143 statewide, top 12%, 496 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.31%
• DSCR: 3.19
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,000
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -23.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8401 Old Stage Rd Unit 27	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	3mo	$130,000	$108	87
8401 Old Stage Rd Unit 65	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+3%)	14mo	$120,000	$101	79
8401 Old Stage Rd Unit 70	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-6%)	17mo	$130,000	$120	71
8401 Old Stage Rd Unit 12	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+12%)	23mo	$81,900	$63	56
8401 Old Stage Rd #46	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-20%)	22mo	$68,900	$75	52
6901 Old Stage Rd Unit 18	1.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+4%)	19mo	$79,000	$66	33
6755 Cyprus Dr	0.93mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,214 (+5%)	22mo	$445,000	$367	30
6901 Old Stage Rd #11	1.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-20%)	6mo	$30,000	$32	30
4876 Kane Creek Rd	1.27mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,092 (-5%)	22mo	$465,000	$426	27
6501 Kentucky Dr	0.79mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+17%)	10mo	$238,000	$177	22
6901 Old Stage Rd #10	1.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+25%)	14mo	$115,000	$80	19
5499 Kane Creek Rd	0.77mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+22%)	22mo	$275,000	$196	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $57,039
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.68×
• Total profit: $151,180
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97502

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,094 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $285/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $1,093

Break-even live

Break-even rent $711

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,147	-5% $1,120	+0% $1,093	+5% $1,066	+10% $1,039
Rent	-10% $928	-5% $1,010	+0% $1,093	+5% $1,176	+10% $1,259
Rate	-1.0pp $1,141	-0.5pp $1,117	base $1,093	+0.5pp $1,068	+1.0pp $1,043

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease of 685.0
• HOA & community: Senior communityCC&R's apply

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s)Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Shared well waterSeptic tank sewerElectricity connected
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide) located in a parkOne levelMay remain in parkOn leased land
• Construction: Built in 1975Pillar/post/pier foundationMetal skirting
• Exterior features: Composition roofAluminum window framesLandscaped, level lotShed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: RangeRange hood
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (includes primary bedroom)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in featuresEnclosed toilet(s)Fiberglass stall showerLaminate countersLinen closetShower/tub comboWalk-in closet(s)Fireplace in the family room
• Laundry & utility: Water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $95,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $95,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   pricedays on market $95,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $100,000 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $100,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $100,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $100,000 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $100,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $100,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $100,000 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $100,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $100,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $100,000 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $100,000 Active 84 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $100,000 Active 83 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $100,000 Active 82 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $100,000 Active 81 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $100,000 Active 80 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $100,000 Active 79 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 78 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 77 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $100,000 Active 76 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $100,000 Active 75 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 74 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 73 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 72 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 71 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 70 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $100,000 Active 69 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $100,000 Active 68 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $100,000 Active 67 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $100,000 Active 66 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $100,000 Active 64 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $100,000 Active 62 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $100,000 Active 61 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $100,000 Active 59 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $100,000 Active 58 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $100,000 Active 57 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $100,000 Active 56 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $100,000 Active 55 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $100,000 Active 53 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $100,000 Active 52 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $100,000 Active 50 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $100,000 Active 49 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 48 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 47 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $285 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$637/yr (+$53/mo · 223.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$285
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,011
• − Management: −$2,011
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $12,267
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,944
• After-tax cash flow: $10,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,760–$17,280 screening

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Madrone Hills 55+ community is move-in ready with new laminate wood flooring and updated cabinetry. It offers a spacious primary suite and a covered front porch with mountain views. The property is located in a low-maintenance setting with easy access to I-5 and Laurel Hill Golf Course.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint improves aesthetics and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Patrick Elementary School F OR #263/412 Nat'l #26,716/41,679 Middle Hanby Middle School F OR #86/128 Nat'l #9,020/14,009 High Crater Renaissance Academy D OR #50/143 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Point SD 6
• NCES district ID: 4102940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $49,736
• Composite: 26.09/100
• National rank: #7290
• State rank: #42 of 58 in OR

A Composite livability gradescore 90/100

Livability — Central Point

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #92

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 234,433 people
• City population: 29,067
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 29,067
• Household income: $83,488
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -446.66%
• Current HPI: 252.2725
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.33%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease of 685.0
• HOA & community: Senior communityCC&R's apply

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s)Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Shared well waterSeptic tank sewerElectricity connected
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide) located in a parkOne levelMay remain in parkOn leased land
• Construction: Built in 1975Pillar/post/pier foundationMetal skirting
• Exterior features: Composition roofAluminum window framesLandscaped, level lotShed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: RangeRange hood
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (includes primary bedroom)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in featuresEnclosed toilet(s)Fiberglass stall showerLaminate countersLinen closetShower/tub comboWalk-in closet(s)Fireplace in the family room
• Laundry & utility: Water heater

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $100,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $285 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.