7278 Chadwick Hogan Rd

Brenham, TX 77426

$675,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 850 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,427/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,540
• Tax + insurance: −$515
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-2,927/mo
• Annual: $-35,127/yr
• Cap rate: 1.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.59%
• DSCR: 0.17
• 1% rule: 0.21%
• Cash to close: $189,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $675k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-35k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (76.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (78.9% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($634k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (78.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $72k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $68k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#136 in TX, #3,978 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime F.
• Brenham ISD (town): math 50% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #263 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 111 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$116k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.1% vs local median 2.7% in Brenham — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 79% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.