7278 Chadwick Hogan Rd · Brenham, TX 77426

$675,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 850 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 2025 3.51 ac lot $794/sqft · 18% above area ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.5/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You will love this custom built modern Barndominium on 3.5 acres in gorgeous Chappell Hill. Home is nestled on a picturesque lot w/trees, rolling landscape & small pond offering the perfect country setting. Built in 2025, it offers 3 beds, 2.5 baths, an office-flex space along w/an open concept living/dining & 13' ceilings. Kitchen is complete w/soft close cabinets, pot drawers, quartz counters & backsplash w/extra lg island that serves as a table for 4. Separate primary suite has full bath, double sinks & shower plus large walk in closet. 1/2 bath in 2nd bedroom makes a great mother-in-law suite or guest room. Wide LVP floors, spray-in foam, custom HVAC system & many other upgrades. Oversized garage w/17' ceilings can easily be converted to extra living space. Best views are from the (2) 32x10 covered patios. Perfect for morning coffee and entertaining friends/family. See the adjacent 1.7 acre lot offered for sale. MLS#40280182. Deed restrictions & survey of subdivided plat in docs

Key facts

• Small pond
• Picturesque lot
• Soft close cabinets

Tags

• 3.5 ACRES
• PICTURESQUE LOT
• SMALL POND
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING DINING
• 13 CEILINGS
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $675k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-35k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (76.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (78.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (78.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.1% vs local median 2.7% in Brenham — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#136 in TX, #3,978 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime F.
• Brenham ISD (town): math 50% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #263 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 111 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $72k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $68k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$116k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($634k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,735 (78.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 79% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.21% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.59%
• DSCR: 0.17
• GRM: 39.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,475,000
• List price: $675,000
• Delta: -54.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $180,832
• Equity at exit: $608,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.59×
• Total profit: $678,431
• Equity at exit: $1,311,377

Cash invested: $189,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77426

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 39.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,540
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,806/yr
• Insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-2,927

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,133

Max offer price $157,890

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $168,750
• Closing costs: $20,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $675,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $675,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $675,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $675,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $675,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $675,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $675,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $675,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $675,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $675,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $675,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $675,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $675,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $675,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    historical

    Show marketing remark (1024 chars)

    You will love this custom built modern Barndominium on 3.5 acres in gorgeous Chappell Hill. Home is nestled on a picturesque lot w/trees, rolling landscape & small pond offering the perfect country setting. Built in 2025, it offers 3 beds, 2.5 baths, an office-flex space along w/an open concept living/dining & 13' ceilings. Kitchen is complete w/soft close cabinets, pot drawers, quartz counters & backsplash w/extra lg island that serves as a table for 4. Separate primary suite has full bath, double sinks & shower plus large walk in closet. 1/2 bath in 2nd bedroom makes a great mother-in-law suite or guest room. Wide LVP floors, spray-in foam, custom HVAC system & many other upgrades. Oversized garage w/17' ceilings can easily be converted to extra living space. Best views are from the (2) 32x10 covered patios. Perfect for morning coffee and entertaining friends/family. See the adjacent 1.7 acre lot offered for sale. MLS#40280182. Deed restrictions & survey of subdivided plat in docs

16. 2026-04-16
    listed $675,000 Active 1024-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1024 chars)

    You will love this custom built modern Barndominium on 3.5 acres in gorgeous Chappell Hill. Home is nestled on a picturesque lot w/trees, rolling landscape & small pond offering the perfect country setting. Built in 2025, it offers 3 beds, 2.5 baths, an office-flex space along w/an open concept living/dining & 13' ceilings. Kitchen is complete w/soft close cabinets, pot drawers, quartz counters & backsplash w/extra lg island that serves as a table for 4. Separate primary suite has full bath, double sinks & shower plus large walk in closet. 1/2 bath in 2nd bedroom makes a great mother-in-law suite or guest room. Wide LVP floors, spray-in foam, custom HVAC system & many other upgrades. Oversized garage w/17' ceilings can easily be converted to extra living space. Best views are from the (2) 32x10 covered patios. Perfect for morning coffee and entertaining friends/family. See the adjacent 1.7 acre lot offered for sale. MLS#40280182. Deed restrictions & survey of subdivided plat in docs

17. 2026-03-20
    listed $695,000 Active
18. 2025-08-17
    historical
19. 2025-03-18
    price $399,900
20. 2025-02-17
    listed $425,000 Active
21. 2024-04-26
    historical
22. 2023-12-15
    listed $349,900 Active
23. 2023-12-10
    historical
24. 2023-10-26
    listed $399,900 Active
25. 2023-10-06
    historical
26. 2023-09-20
    status Active
27. 2023-09-18
    price $549,900
28. 2023-08-30
    historical
29. 2023-08-04
    price $670,000
30. 2023-07-23
    price $599,000
31. 2023-07-09
    listed Active
32. 2023-06-16
    listed $695,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,806 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,352 · $1,029/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,547/yr (+$796/mo · 340.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,810
• − Property taxes: −$2,806
• − Insurance: −$3,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$19,636
• Taxable loss: −$49,240
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,818
• After-tax cash flow: $-23,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brenham ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811280
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,090
• Composite: 38.51/100
• National rank: #4177
• State rank: #263 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brenham

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #136
• US rank: #3978

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 29,498
• Population (ZIP): 2,193

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,557 people
• By 2030: 38,789 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 41,305 · +10.0%
• By 2050: 43,687 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 50,242 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 53,235 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 11% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.7) · D 22.3% · R 77.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -42.7pp · 2024: -54.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.7 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+51.3 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+42.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.11%
• Current HPI: 271.5139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $675,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $695,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $399,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listed $425,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-12-15 Listed $349,900 HARMLS
• 2023-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-10-26 Listed $399,900 HARMLS
• 2023-10-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-09-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-09-18 Price Changed $549,900 HARMLS
• 2023-08-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-08-04 Price Changed $670,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-23 Price Changed $599,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-09 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-06-16 Listed $695,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+58.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,806 · +58.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.