1731 Ball Park Rd

Henry Fork, VA 24151

$172,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,275 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 256 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,209/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax + insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-86/mo
• Annual: $-1,029/yr
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $48,412

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $173k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (30.1% below list).
• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#346 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Franklin County Public School District (town): math 69% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #24 of 131 in VA (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Sontag Elementary (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #273 of 1,108 statewide, top 27%, 241 students, 76% FRL); Benjamin Franklin Middle (math 64% / reading 72%, grade A-, #94 of 342 statewide, top 28%, 1,397 students, 74% FRL); Franklin County High (math 79% / reading 82%, grade A, #57 of 319 statewide, top 18%, 1,904 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 45% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 196 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.