1731 Ball Park Rd · Henry Fork, VA 24151

$172,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,275 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 256 Days on market

Built 1965 0.34 ac lot $136/sqft · 10% below area Est $191k · 10% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained home w/ new propane furnace 2024 and plumbing upgrade to pex. Adjacent triplex also available which includes numerous large detached garages. Oil tank. Septic pumped 2025. One level living. Nice views in a rural setting.

Key facts

• New propane furnace
• Septic pumped
• One level living

Tags

• NEW PROPANE FURNACE
• PLUMBING UPGRADE TO PEX
• LARGE DETACHED GARAGES
• SEPTIC PUMPED
• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• RURAL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $173k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#346 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Franklin County Public School District (town): math 69% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #24 of 131 in VA (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,867 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,487
• List price: $172,900
• Delta: -9.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3266 Doe Run Rd	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,305 (+2%)	0mo	$180,000	$138	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-33,553
• Equity at exit: $25,780

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-36,558
• Equity at exit: $14,949

Cash invested: $48,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24151

• Home prices YoY: -13.4%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $742/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,317

Max offer price $157,759

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $12	-5% $-37	+0% $-86	+5% $-135	+10% $-184
Rent	-10% $-181	-5% $-133	+0% $-86	+5% $-38	+10% $10
Rate	-1.0pp $1	-0.5pp $-42	base $-86	+0.5pp $-131	+1.0pp $-176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,225
• Closing costs: $5,187
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Well maintained home w/ new propane furnace 2024 and plumbing upgrade to pex. Adjacent triplex also available which includes numerous large detached garages. Oil tank. Septic pumped 2025. One level living. Nice views in a rural setting.

2. 2026-02-24
   price $172,900 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Well maintained home w/ new propane furnace 2024 and plumbing upgrade to pex. Adjacent triplex also available which includes numerous large detached garages. Oil tank. Septic pumped 2025. One level living. Nice views in a rural setting.

3. 2026-02-16
   price $174,900 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Well maintained home w/ new propane furnace 2024 and plumbing upgrade to pex. Adjacent triplex also available which includes numerous large detached garages. Oil tank. Septic pumped 2025. One level living. Nice views in a rural setting.

4. 2025-12-09
   price $179,900 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Well maintained home w/ new propane furnace 2024 and plumbing upgrade to pex. Adjacent triplex also available which includes numerous large detached garages. Oil tank. Septic pumped 2025. One level living. Nice views in a rural setting.

5. 2025-10-17
   price $187,000 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Well maintained home w/ new propane furnace 2024 and plumbing upgrade to pex. Adjacent triplex also available which includes numerous large detached garages. Oil tank. Septic pumped 2025. One level living. Nice views in a rural setting.

6. 2025-09-03
   listed $189,000 Active 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Well maintained home w/ new propane furnace 2024 and plumbing upgrade to pex. Adjacent triplex also available which includes numerous large detached garages. Oil tank. Septic pumped 2025. One level living. Nice views in a rural setting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $742 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,418 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$676/yr (+$56/mo · 91.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,685
• − Property taxes: −$742
• − Insurance: −$864
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − Depreciation: −$5,030
• Taxable loss: −$4,138
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$993
• After-tax cash flow: $-35/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101440
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $47,093
• Composite: 59.5/100
• National rank: #921
• State rank: #24 of 131 in VA

Livability — Henry Fork

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #13818

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Franklin County · 18,154 people
• City population: 18,154
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• Population (ZIP): 18,154
• Household income: $65,223
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 462.0

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,242 people
• By 2030: 55,742 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 53,669 · -4.6%
• By 2050: 50,291 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 42,395 · -24.6%
• By 2100: 32,981 · -41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 14% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.3) · D 26.9% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: -22.8pp · 2024: -45.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.3 2020: R+42.1 2016: R+42.2 2012: R+28.6 2008: R+22.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.83%
• Current HPI: 204.9607
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-8.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $172,900 MLSRV
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $174,900 MLSRV
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $179,900 MLSRV
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $187,000 MLSRV
• 2025-09-03 Listed $189,000 MLSRV

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $742 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.