21 Amherst Rd

Riverside, CT 06878

$1,699,999C+

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,911 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $14,209/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,915
• Tax + insurance: −$1,444
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,984
• Net cashflow: $866/mo
• Annual: $10,395/yr
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.50%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $476,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.70M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $866 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.42M (16.4% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.67M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.42M (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $136k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $124k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#60 in CT, #3,626 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Greenwich School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #12 of 153 in CT (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $450k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $476k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$217k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.6% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.