21 Amherst Rd · Riverside, CT 06878

$1,699,999

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,911 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1961 7,840 sqft lot $584/sqft · 20% below area Est $2130k · 20% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

First Time on the Market! Set on a quiet, sought-after street, this spacious five-bedroom, three-bath split-level home spans 2,911 square feet of bright, comfortable space. The main level features an eat-in kitchen and a large open dining and family room with an electric fireplace, ideal for gathering and everyday living. Sliders off the dining and family area lead to a generous deck overlooking a level yard, well suited for indoor-outdoor entertaining. A sun-filled living room with a bay window adds welcoming charm. The upper level includes a large great room, providing valuable flexible space for recreation, work, or relaxing. A walk-out lower level adds even more versatility, well suited to a playroom, home office, gym, or multi-generational living needs. Central air, a one-car garage, and abundant space throughout complete this desirable opportunity in Riverside.

Key facts

• Level yard
• Generous deck
• Bay window

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• GENEROUS DECK
• LEVEL YARD
• SUN-FILLED LIVING ROOM
• BAY WINDOW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.70M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $866 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.42M (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.42M (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.6% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#60 in CT, #3,626 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Greenwich School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #12 of 153 in CT (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $136k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $124k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $476k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$217k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.67M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $450k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,420,901 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.50%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,130,024
• List price: $1,699,999
• Delta: -20.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Macarthur Dr	0.29mi	5/3.5	2,761 (-5%)	10mo	$2,050,022	$742	67
27 Macarthur Dr	0.22mi	5/3.5	3,282 (+13%)	0mo	$3,525,000	$1,074	66
27 Marshall St	0.39mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,750 (-6%)	7mo	$2,700,000	$982	62
153 Lockwood Rd	0.66mi	5/3.5	2,729 (-6%)	1mo	$2,735,000	$1,002	56
5 Sunshine Ave	0.42mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,272 (+12%)	1mo	$2,705,000	$827	54
2 Midbrook Ln	0.62mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,026 (+4%)	7mo	$2,575,000	$851	51
63 N Sound Beach Ave	0.42mi	4/6.5 (-1)	2,704 (-7%)	2mo	$2,500,000	$925	48
16 Split Timber Pl	0.48mi	5/3.5	3,243 (+11%)	10mo	$2,420,000	$746	48
23 Silver Beech Rd	0.33mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,511 (-14%)	6mo	$1,660,000	$661	48
20 Center Dr	0.57mi	5/4.5	3,182 (+9%)	6mo	$2,940,000	$924	47
20 Linwood Ave	0.64mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,061 (+5%)	10mo	$2,400,000	$784	46
9 Boyd Ln	0.62mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,304 (+14%)	8mo	$2,125,000	$643	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $677,983
• Equity at exit: $1,209,776

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.05×
• Total profit: $1,925,597
• Equity at exit: $2,327,348

Cash invested: $476,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06878

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $14,209 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,915
• Tax from tax record: −$610 /mo · $7,324/yr
• Insurance: −$708
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,984
• Net cashflow: $866

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,112

Max offer price $1,699,999

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $425,000
• Closing costs: $51,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Hassake Rd Old Greenwich, CT	4.0	3.5	2943	$16,000	$5.44	43d	1	0.08mi
6 Halsey Dr Old Greenwich, CT	4.0	3.0	2490	$8,500	$3.41	14d	1	0.27mi
8 Perry Pl Riverside, CT	4.0	3.0	2556	$11,500	$4.50	21d	1	0.28mi
1 Crawford Ter Riverside, CT	4.0	4.0	2819	$18,000	$6.39	21d	1	0.35mi
25 Arnold St Old Greenwich, CT	4.0	3.0	2490	$10,500	$4.22	23d	1	0.36mi
14 Rainbow Dr Riverside, CT	5.0	3.5	3510	$16,000	$4.56	23d	1	0.41mi
1 Ernel Dr Riverside, CT	5.0	3.5	2517	$13,000	$5.16	21d	1	0.43mi
26 Revere Rd Riverside, CT	4.0	2.5	2383	$13,900	$5.83	10d	1	0.49mi
26 Revere Rd Riverside, CT	4.0	2.5	2383	$13,900	$5.83	11d	1	0.49mi
15 Lancer Rd Riverside, CT	4.0	2.5	3031	$8,889	$2.93	23d	1	0.53mi
4 Wescott Ct Riverside, CT	4.0	4.5	3950	$15,000	$3.80	23d	1	0.62mi
16 Laddins Rock Rd Old Greenwich, CT	5.0	4.5	4000	$20,500	$5.12	23d	1	0.69mi
10 Durkin Pl Riverside, CT	5.0	4.5	3245	$17,500	$5.39	43d	1	0.69mi
507 River Rd Cos Cob, CT	5.0	4.5	4100	$16,000	$3.90	3d	1	0.72mi
12 Westwood Dr Stamford, CT	4.0	2.5	2734	$6,500	$2.38	23d	1	0.72mi
12 Norton Ln Old Greenwich, CT	4.0	3.5	3285	$15,000	$4.57	21d	1	0.81mi
40 Mianus View Ter Cos Cob, CT	4.0	3.5	2895	$14,500	$5.01	11d	1	0.96mi
40 Mianus View Ter Cos Cob, CT	5.0	3.5	2895	$14,500	$5.01	3d	1	0.96mi
1 Cary Rd Riverside, CT	4.0	3.5	3300	$13,500	$4.09	43d	1	0.97mi
8 Potter Dr Old Greenwich, CT	4.0	3.0	1979	$10,500	$5.31	44d	1	1.04mi
25 Buxton Ln Riverside, CT	5.0	3.5	2780	$12,995	$4.67	23d	1	1.23mi
8 Highview Ave Old Greenwich, CT	6.0	5.5	4007	$18,500	$4.62	21d	1	1.23mi
21 Spring St Riverside, CT	5.0	4.0	2924	$18,000	$6.16	43d	1	1.33mi
41 Grove St Cos Cob, CT	5.0	3.5	2787	$12,000	$4.31	43d	1	1.33mi
28 Pleasant St Cos Cob, CT	4.0	2.5	2140	$6,250	$2.92	11d	1	1.39mi
14 Shoalpoint Ln Riverside, CT	4.0	2.5	2340	$14,000	$5.98	23d	1	1.45mi
30 Bayside Ter Riverside, CT	4.0	3.5	3730	$25,000	$6.70	43d	1	1.48mi
314 Sound Beach Ave Old Greenwich, CT	4.0	2.5	3007	$15,500	$5.15	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Under Contract 880-char remark

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   First Time on the Market! Set on a quiet, sought-after street, this spacious five-bedroom, three-bath split-level home spans 2,911 square feet of bright, comfortable space. The main level features an eat-in kitchen and a large open dining and family room with an electric fireplace, ideal for gathering and everyday living. Sliders off the dining and family area lead to a generous deck overlooking a level yard, well suited for indoor-outdoor entertaining. A sun-filled living room with a bay window adds welcoming charm. The upper level includes a large great room, providing valuable flexible space for recreation, work, or relaxing. A walk-out lower level adds even more versatility, well suited to a playroom, home office, gym, or multi-generational living needs. Central air, a one-car garage, and abundant space throughout complete this desirable opportunity in Riverside.

2. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 880-char remark

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   First Time on the Market! Set on a quiet, sought-after street, this spacious five-bedroom, three-bath split-level home spans 2,911 square feet of bright, comfortable space. The main level features an eat-in kitchen and a large open dining and family room with an electric fireplace, ideal for gathering and everyday living. Sliders off the dining and family area lead to a generous deck overlooking a level yard, well suited for indoor-outdoor entertaining. A sun-filled living room with a bay window adds welcoming charm. The upper level includes a large great room, providing valuable flexible space for recreation, work, or relaxing. A walk-out lower level adds even more versatility, well suited to a playroom, home office, gym, or multi-generational living needs. Central air, a one-car garage, and abundant space throughout complete this desirable opportunity in Riverside.

3. 2026-04-30
   price $1,699,999 880-char remark

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   First Time on the Market! Set on a quiet, sought-after street, this spacious five-bedroom, three-bath split-level home spans 2,911 square feet of bright, comfortable space. The main level features an eat-in kitchen and a large open dining and family room with an electric fireplace, ideal for gathering and everyday living. Sliders off the dining and family area lead to a generous deck overlooking a level yard, well suited for indoor-outdoor entertaining. A sun-filled living room with a bay window adds welcoming charm. The upper level includes a large great room, providing valuable flexible space for recreation, work, or relaxing. A walk-out lower level adds even more versatility, well suited to a playroom, home office, gym, or multi-generational living needs. Central air, a one-car garage, and abundant space throughout complete this desirable opportunity in Riverside.

4. 2026-04-30
   price $1,699,999 880-char remark

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   First Time on the Market! Set on a quiet, sought-after street, this spacious five-bedroom, three-bath split-level home spans 2,911 square feet of bright, comfortable space. The main level features an eat-in kitchen and a large open dining and family room with an electric fireplace, ideal for gathering and everyday living. Sliders off the dining and family area lead to a generous deck overlooking a level yard, well suited for indoor-outdoor entertaining. A sun-filled living room with a bay window adds welcoming charm. The upper level includes a large great room, providing valuable flexible space for recreation, work, or relaxing. A walk-out lower level adds even more versatility, well suited to a playroom, home office, gym, or multi-generational living needs. Central air, a one-car garage, and abundant space throughout complete this desirable opportunity in Riverside.

5. 2026-04-16
   price $1,899,500 880-char remark

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   First Time on the Market! Set on a quiet, sought-after street, this spacious five-bedroom, three-bath split-level home spans 2,911 square feet of bright, comfortable space. The main level features an eat-in kitchen and a large open dining and family room with an electric fireplace, ideal for gathering and everyday living. Sliders off the dining and family area lead to a generous deck overlooking a level yard, well suited for indoor-outdoor entertaining. A sun-filled living room with a bay window adds welcoming charm. The upper level includes a large great room, providing valuable flexible space for recreation, work, or relaxing. A walk-out lower level adds even more versatility, well suited to a playroom, home office, gym, or multi-generational living needs. Central air, a one-car garage, and abundant space throughout complete this desirable opportunity in Riverside.

6. 2026-04-16
   price $1,899,500 880-char remark

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   First Time on the Market! Set on a quiet, sought-after street, this spacious five-bedroom, three-bath split-level home spans 2,911 square feet of bright, comfortable space. The main level features an eat-in kitchen and a large open dining and family room with an electric fireplace, ideal for gathering and everyday living. Sliders off the dining and family area lead to a generous deck overlooking a level yard, well suited for indoor-outdoor entertaining. A sun-filled living room with a bay window adds welcoming charm. The upper level includes a large great room, providing valuable flexible space for recreation, work, or relaxing. A walk-out lower level adds even more versatility, well suited to a playroom, home office, gym, or multi-generational living needs. Central air, a one-car garage, and abundant space throughout complete this desirable opportunity in Riverside.

7. 2026-04-13
   listed $2,150,000 Active 880-char remark

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   First Time on the Market! Set on a quiet, sought-after street, this spacious five-bedroom, three-bath split-level home spans 2,911 square feet of bright, comfortable space. The main level features an eat-in kitchen and a large open dining and family room with an electric fireplace, ideal for gathering and everyday living. Sliders off the dining and family area lead to a generous deck overlooking a level yard, well suited for indoor-outdoor entertaining. A sun-filled living room with a bay window adds welcoming charm. The upper level includes a large great room, providing valuable flexible space for recreation, work, or relaxing. A walk-out lower level adds even more versatility, well suited to a playroom, home office, gym, or multi-generational living needs. Central air, a one-car garage, and abundant space throughout complete this desirable opportunity in Riverside.

8. 2026-04-13
   listed $2,150,000 Active 880-char remark

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   First Time on the Market! Set on a quiet, sought-after street, this spacious five-bedroom, three-bath split-level home spans 2,911 square feet of bright, comfortable space. The main level features an eat-in kitchen and a large open dining and family room with an electric fireplace, ideal for gathering and everyday living. Sliders off the dining and family area lead to a generous deck overlooking a level yard, well suited for indoor-outdoor entertaining. A sun-filled living room with a bay window adds welcoming charm. The upper level includes a large great room, providing valuable flexible space for recreation, work, or relaxing. A walk-out lower level adds even more versatility, well suited to a playroom, home office, gym, or multi-generational living needs. Central air, a one-car garage, and abundant space throughout complete this desirable opportunity in Riverside.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,324 · $610/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $21,852 · $1,821/mo
• Expected delta: +$14,528/yr (+$1,211/mo · 198.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $170,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$95,226
• − Property taxes: −$7,324
• − Insurance: −$10,002
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,641
• − Management: −$13,641
• − Depreciation: −$49,455
• Taxable loss: −$18,781
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,507
• After-tax cash flow: $14,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenwich School District
• NCES district ID: 0901710
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $129,257
• Composite: 65.67/100
• National rank: #461
• State rank: #12 of 153 in CT

Livability — Riverside

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #3626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety B User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverside, CT
• City population: 8,446
• Population (ZIP): 8,446

Population outlook (Western Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 685,031

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 13% Two or more races 12% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Salvadoran 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 16% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Western Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 58.8% · R 39.7% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.28%
• Current HPI: 198.3808
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

-20.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-09 Pending — GMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $1,699,999 Smart MLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $1,699,999 GMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $1,899,500 Smart MLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $1,899,500 GMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $2,150,000 GMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $2,150,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $7,324 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.