238 Swan Lake Ave

Belfast, ME 04915

$209,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,687/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$349
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-113/mo
• Annual: $-1,353/yr
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.31%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (19.3% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#14 in ME, #1,247 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• RSU 71 (town): math 79% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #85 of 112 in ME (top 76%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 143 units permitted in Waldo County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Waldo County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $209k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.4% in Belfast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.