238 Swan Lake Ave · Belfast, ME 04915

$209,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1960 0.36 ac lot $220/sqft · at area comps Est $212k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming and affordable ranch located in the highly desirable coastal city of Belfast. Offering the ease of single-floor living, this well-maintained three-bedroom, one-bath home is the perfect opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking to enjoy life along Maine's beautiful coastline. Inside, you'll find a functional and inviting layout with a spacious kitchen and dining area, comfortable living room, and three efficiently designed bedrooms that make great use of the space. The home offers a warm, practical flow ideal for everyday living. Outside, the property continues to impress with a detached two-car garage, perfect for vehicles, hobbies, or workshop space, with additional storage above. A separate shed provides even more room for tools, seasonal items, or outdoor equipment. Living in Belfast means enjoying everything that makes Midcoast Maine so special. Known for its vibrant downtown, scenic harbor, and strong sense of community, Belfast offers access to waterfront parks, local shops, art galleries, and some of the area's best dining. Outdoor enthusiasts will love the nearby walking trails, boating opportunities, and stunning ocean views that define this coastal lifestyle. Whether you're looking for an affordable year-round home or a place to settle into Maine living, this property offers comfort, convenience, and location all in one.

Key facts

• Separate shed
• Waterfront parks
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• SINGLE-FLOOR LIVING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• SEPARATE SHED
• WATERFRONT PARKS
• WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.4% in Belfast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#14 in ME, #1,247 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• RSU 71 (town): math 79% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #85 of 112 in ME (top 76%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 143 units permitted in Waldo County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waldo County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $209k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,651 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.31%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,481
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -1.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-41,023
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-44,864
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04915

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,687 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,144/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,829

Max offer price $189,081

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6	-5% $-54	+0% $-113	+5% $-172	+10% $-231
Rent	-10% $-246	-5% $-179	+0% $-113	+5% $-46	+10% $20
Rate	-1.0pp $-8	-0.5pp $-60	base $-113	+0.5pp $-167	+1.0pp $-222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $209,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $229,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 50 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    price $229,000 1400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1400 chars)

    Welcome to this charming and affordable ranch located in the highly desirable coastal city of Belfast. Offering the ease of single-floor living, this well-maintained three-bedroom, one-bath home is the perfect opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking to enjoy life along Maine's beautiful coastline. Inside, you'll find a functional and inviting layout with a spacious kitchen and dining area, comfortable living room, and three efficiently designed bedrooms that make great use of the space. The home offers a warm, practical flow ideal for everyday living. Outside, the property continues to impress with a detached two-car garage, perfect for vehicles, hobbies, or workshop space, with additional storage above. A separate shed provides even more room for tools, seasonal items, or outdoor equipment. Living in Belfast means enjoying everything that makes Midcoast Maine so special. Known for its vibrant downtown, scenic harbor, and strong sense of community, Belfast offers access to waterfront parks, local shops, art galleries, and some of the area's best dining. Outdoor enthusiasts will love the nearby walking trails, boating opportunities, and stunning ocean views that define this coastal lifestyle. Whether you're looking for an affordable year-round home or a place to settle into Maine living, this property offers comfort, convenience, and location all in one.

19. 2026-04-10
    listed $239,000 Active 1400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1400 chars)

    Welcome to this charming and affordable ranch located in the highly desirable coastal city of Belfast. Offering the ease of single-floor living, this well-maintained three-bedroom, one-bath home is the perfect opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking to enjoy life along Maine's beautiful coastline. Inside, you'll find a functional and inviting layout with a spacious kitchen and dining area, comfortable living room, and three efficiently designed bedrooms that make great use of the space. The home offers a warm, practical flow ideal for everyday living. Outside, the property continues to impress with a detached two-car garage, perfect for vehicles, hobbies, or workshop space, with additional storage above. A separate shed provides even more room for tools, seasonal items, or outdoor equipment. Living in Belfast means enjoying everything that makes Midcoast Maine so special. Known for its vibrant downtown, scenic harbor, and strong sense of community, Belfast offers access to waterfront parks, local shops, art galleries, and some of the area's best dining. Outdoor enthusiasts will love the nearby walking trails, boating opportunities, and stunning ocean views that define this coastal lifestyle. Whether you're looking for an affordable year-round home or a place to settle into Maine living, this property offers comfort, convenience, and location all in one.

20. 2018-12-20
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    Looking for that one floor easy living? This home would be an excellent starter home or a retirement home for some one looking for ease and comfort. Warm and inviting with large eat-in kitchen that opens up to the living room with pretty bay window. Also, 2 bedrooms, laundry room and full bath with shower/tub. Convenient to Belfast just about 3 miles away. Walk 1/2 mile to the Upper Mason Pond to do some fishing or just a peaceful spot. Home has metal roof and vinyl siding for easy maintenance. 2 Car Garage has ample room for work space and has nice storage overhead with exterior stairs for access. Storage shed was built in 2009. Close to all the amenities Belfast has to offer.

21. 2018-11-30
    status Pending - Continue to Show 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    Looking for that one floor easy living? This home would be an excellent starter home or a retirement home for some one looking for ease and comfort. Warm and inviting with large eat-in kitchen that opens up to the living room with pretty bay window. Also, 2 bedrooms, laundry room and full bath with shower/tub. Convenient to Belfast just about 3 miles away. Walk 1/2 mile to the Upper Mason Pond to do some fishing or just a peaceful spot. Home has metal roof and vinyl siding for easy maintenance. 2 Car Garage has ample room for work space and has nice storage overhead with exterior stairs for access. Storage shed was built in 2009. Close to all the amenities Belfast has to offer.

22. 2018-11-08
    status Pending 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    Looking for that one floor easy living? This home would be an excellent starter home or a retirement home for some one looking for ease and comfort. Warm and inviting with large eat-in kitchen that opens up to the living room with pretty bay window. Also, 2 bedrooms, laundry room and full bath with shower/tub. Convenient to Belfast just about 3 miles away. Walk 1/2 mile to the Upper Mason Pond to do some fishing or just a peaceful spot. Home has metal roof and vinyl siding for easy maintenance. 2 Car Garage has ample room for work space and has nice storage overhead with exterior stairs for access. Storage shed was built in 2009. Close to all the amenities Belfast has to offer.

23. 2018-10-14
    price $115,000 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    Looking for that one floor easy living? This home would be an excellent starter home or a retirement home for some one looking for ease and comfort. Warm and inviting with large eat-in kitchen that opens up to the living room with pretty bay window. Also, 2 bedrooms, laundry room and full bath with shower/tub. Convenient to Belfast just about 3 miles away. Walk 1/2 mile to the Upper Mason Pond to do some fishing or just a peaceful spot. Home has metal roof and vinyl siding for easy maintenance. 2 Car Garage has ample room for work space and has nice storage overhead with exterior stairs for access. Storage shed was built in 2009. Close to all the amenities Belfast has to offer.

24. 2018-09-15
    price $129,000 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    Looking for that one floor easy living? This home would be an excellent starter home or a retirement home for some one looking for ease and comfort. Warm and inviting with large eat-in kitchen that opens up to the living room with pretty bay window. Also, 2 bedrooms, laundry room and full bath with shower/tub. Convenient to Belfast just about 3 miles away. Walk 1/2 mile to the Upper Mason Pond to do some fishing or just a peaceful spot. Home has metal roof and vinyl siding for easy maintenance. 2 Car Garage has ample room for work space and has nice storage overhead with exterior stairs for access. Storage shed was built in 2009. Close to all the amenities Belfast has to offer.

25. 2018-08-27
    listed $149,000 Active 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    Looking for that one floor easy living? This home would be an excellent starter home or a retirement home for some one looking for ease and comfort. Warm and inviting with large eat-in kitchen that opens up to the living room with pretty bay window. Also, 2 bedrooms, laundry room and full bath with shower/tub. Convenient to Belfast just about 3 miles away. Walk 1/2 mile to the Upper Mason Pond to do some fishing or just a peaceful spot. Home has metal roof and vinyl siding for easy maintenance. 2 Car Garage has ample room for work space and has nice storage overhead with exterior stairs for access. Storage shed was built in 2009. Close to all the amenities Belfast has to offer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,144 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,144 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$3,144
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,619
• − Management: −$1,619
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$4,976
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,194
• After-tax cash flow: $-159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 71
• NCES district ID: 2314822
• Math proficiency: 79% ▲ 55.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▲ 34.00%
• Median HH income: $43,774
• Composite: 67.47/100
• National rank: #374
• State rank: #85 of 112 in ME

Livability — Belfast

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #1247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belfast, ME
• City population: 9,030
• Population (ZIP): 9,030

Population outlook (Waldo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,611 people
• By 2030: 39,475 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 38,245 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 36,078 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 29,774 · -24.8%
• By 2100: 22,172 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waldo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.4% · R 47.0% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: 11.6pp · 2024: 3.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.4 2020: D+4.7 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+10.7 2008: D+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.00%
• Current HPI: 258.9162
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+53.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $229,000 MREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $239,000 MREIS
• 2018-12-20 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MREIS
• 2018-11-30 Pending — MREIS
• 2018-11-08 Pending — MREIS
• 2018-10-14 Price Changed $115,000 MREIS
• 2018-09-15 Price Changed $129,000 MREIS
• 2018-08-27 Listed $149,000 MREIS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,144 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.