351 Hester Dr

Dickson, TN 37055

$1,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Active · 184 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,617/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8
• Tax + insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $1,267/mo
• Annual: $15,207/yr
• Cap rate: 1020.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 3620.61%
• DSCR: 162.10
• 1% rule: 107.81%
• Cash to close: $420

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $2k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $2k).
• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($1k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $45 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#219 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Dickson County (rural): math 30% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #39 of 139 in TN (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stuart Burns Elementary (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #158 of 952 statewide, top 17%, 740 students, 0% FRL); Dickson Middle School (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #116 of 333 statewide, top 36%, 594 students, 0% FRL); Dickson County High School (math 6% / reading 41%, grade F, #145 of 332 statewide, top 44%, 1,472 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 297 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 376 units permitted in Dickson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dickson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $420 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1020.1% vs local median 2.8% in Dickson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.