351 Hester Dr · Dickson, TN 37055

$1,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 184 Days on market

Built 2025 $1/sqft · 98% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This BRAND NEW 2025 Fleetwood Elite is available for rent for just $1,500 per month. Take advantage of this limited offer: NO APPLICATION FEES & NO RENT (home and site rent) UNTIL FEB. 1, 2026. For closings before 12/31/25. Restrictions may apply. This BRAND NEW 3-bed, 2-bath home offers a spacious open floor plan that feels open and inviting. The kitchen features a center island, providing plenty of space for cooking, dining, and gathering. The large primary suite serves as a comfortable private retreat. A convenient side entry, along with both front and back decks, adds extra functionality and outdoor living space, making this home ideal for everyday living and entertaining.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Side entry
• Front and back decks

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CENTER ISLAND
• LARGE PRIMARY SUITE
• SIDE ENTRY
• FRONT AND BACK DECKS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $1,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$79,900) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $2k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $2k).
• Recommended offer: $1k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 1020.1% vs local median 2.8% in Dickson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#219 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Dickson County (rural): math 30% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #39 of 139 in TN (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 376 units permitted in Dickson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $45 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dickson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $420 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($1k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 107.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 1020.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 3620.61%
• DSCR: 162.10
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,900
• List price: $1,500
• Delta: -98.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 192.64×
• Total profit: $80,491
• Equity at exit: $224

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 415.56×
• Total profit: $174,116
• Equity at exit: $130

Cash invested: $420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37055

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,617 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2 /mo · $22/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $1,267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13

Max offer price $1,500

Occupancy floor 17%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,268	-5% $1,268	+0% $1,267	+5% $1,267	+10% $1,266
Rent	-10% $1,139	-5% $1,203	+0% $1,267	+5% $1,331	+10% $1,395
Rate	-1.0pp $1,268	-0.5pp $1,268	base $1,267	+0.5pp $1,267	+1.0pp $1,266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $375
• Closing costs: $45
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
351 Hester Dr heuristic Dickson, TN	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,500	$1.42	26d	1	0.02mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,500 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,500 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,500 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,500 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,500 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,500 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,500 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,500 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,500 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,500 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,500 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,500 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,500 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,500 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,500 Active 163 DOM
16. 2025-12-19
    listed $1,500 Active 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    This BRAND NEW 2025 Fleetwood Elite is available for rent for just $1,500 per month. Take advantage of this limited offer: NO APPLICATION FEES & NO RENT (home and site rent) UNTIL FEB. 1, 2026. For closings before 12/31/25. Restrictions may apply. This BRAND NEW 3-bed, 2-bath home offers a spacious open floor plan that feels open and inviting. The kitchen features a center island, providing plenty of space for cooking, dining, and gathering. The large primary suite serves as a comfortable private retreat. A convenient side entry, along with both front and back decks, adds extra functionality and outdoor living space, making this home ideal for everyday living and entertaining.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$84
• − Property taxes: −$22
• − Insurance: −$8
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,553
• − Management: −$1,553
• − Depreciation: −$44
• Taxable income: $16,144
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,874
• After-tax cash flow: $11,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickson County
• NCES district ID: 4701020
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,458
• Composite: 27.01/100
• National rank: #7064
• State rank: #39 of 139 in TN

Livability — Dickson

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #219
• US rank: #16541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dickson County · 29,035 people
• City population: 29,035
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 29,035
• Household income: $69,821
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 394.0

Population outlook (Dickson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,013 people
• By 2030: 56,448 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 58,508 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 59,076 · +7.4%
• By 2075: 58,343 · +6.1%
• By 2100: 52,900 · -3.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 8% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Dickson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.9) · D 23.5% · R 75.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.4pp · 2024: -51.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.9 2020: R+47.4 2016: R+45.6 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.59%
• Current HPI: 303.5997
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Listed $1,500 Zillow