1255 A Ponce Island Dr #712

St. Augustine, FL 32095

$129,900D

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 434 sqft · Built 1987 · Condo · Active · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,446/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$430
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $-211/mo
• Annual: $-2,532/yr
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $93k (28.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 456 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $130k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.1% in St. Augustine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 13% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?